Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT MON JUN 16 1997

FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE DEFINING LOCATIONS OF BEST FIRST PERIOD FLASH
FLOOD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES CDFNT NEAR
A TUL...OUN...TO LBB LINE. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW CENTERED OVR
ERN NM. LOCAL RADARS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM SWRN KS THRU
TX PNDHL...IN REGION OF STEEPEST LAPSE RATES. ARPS DATA INDICATES
SMALL AREA OF 2000-2500 J/KG CAPE VALUES ACRS THE NORTHWEST ZNS. FEEL
THE ACTIVITY ACRS THE NORTHWEST WL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

ARPS DATA ALSO INDICATES GOOD INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZNS...AND ARPS DATA INDICATES CAPE VALUES FROM 4500-5500
J/KG EXTENDING FROM ADM...DUA...TO SEMINOLE AND HUGHES COUNTIES.
EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT ACRS THIS AREA WITHIN NEXT HOUR.

WITH HIGH PW VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF CWA SOUTH OF THE FRONT..WL ISSUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT ACRS THE SRN ZNS...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
COMBINES WITH FORCING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE
EFFICIENT...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION.

MDLS ARE SIMILAR WITH PSN OF UPPER LOW...MOVING EAST TO AR BY 00Z
WED. WL HV SLIGHT CHC/CHC MORNING POPS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SERN ZNS
FOR TUE.

MEDIUM RANGE MDLS INDICATE WARMING TREND BY END OF THE WEEK.

COORD WITH TUL.

FCSTID = 22
OKC   64  85  65  88 /  60  30   0   0
HBR   61  85  63  90 /  50  10   0   0
SPS   65  86  65  93 /  70  10   0   0
GAG   60  84  59  90 /  50  10   0   0
PNC   61  84  64  88 /  50  20   0   0
DUA   67  86  67  87 /  80  30  10   0

.OKC...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR ZONES
OKZ032...OKZ037...OKZ039...OKZ041>053.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR ZONES
TXZ085>090.

CB

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-162030-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT MON JUN 16 1997

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
HENRIETTA TEXAS TO LAWTON TO SEMINOLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FLOODING
RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AT 330 PM.  AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WAS MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  HIGH LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SLIGHT
AND MODERATE RISK AREAS.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.  INSTABILITY IS EXTREME IN SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST...AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND VERY HIGH ELSEWHERE IN THE RISK AREAS.  EVEN
THOUGH THE WIND PROFILE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR...THE RISK OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST DUE TO THE HIGH LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY >MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

THIS IS A SPECIAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK DUE TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER.  ROUTINE OUTLOOKS WILL RESUME NEXT SPRING.

CMS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
0519 PM CDT MON JUN 16 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 PM    1 SW     MEDFORD          OK   59 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED BY
06/16/97   GRANT                          OKLAHOMA MESONETWORK

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
0519 PM CDT MON JUN 16 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 PM    1 SW     MEDFORD          OK   59 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED BY
06/16/97   GRANT                          OKLAHOMA MESONETWORK

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
0617 PM CDT MON JUN 16 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0612 PM    2 N TONKAWA               OK   1.75" HAIL COVERING GROUND
06/16/97   KAY

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
0617 PM CDT MON JUN 16 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0612 PM    2 N TONKAWA               OK   1.75 HAIL COVERING GROUND
06/16/97   KAY

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
0648 PM CDT MON JUN 16 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0640 PM    PONCA CITY                OK   60-70 MPH WINDS WEST SIDE
06/16/97   KAY                            OF PONCA CITY.

MCCAMMON