Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 AM CDT THU JUL 17 1997

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTMAX SITTING AND SPINNING ITS WHEELS NEAR THE
KAY/COWLEY CO KS BORDER CREATING TSTM COMPLEX THAT AS A WHOLE IS NOT
MOVING AT ALL. SOME FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY IN THE
BLACKWELL AREA.  TSTMS HAVE ALSO FIRED IN NW/W OKLA SIMILAR TO THE
LAST FEW MORNINGS. IT HAS BEEN THESE MORNING STORMS THAT HAVE CREATED
THE MCVS TO SPAWN REDEVELOPMENT LATER.  WESTERN LINE HAS DEVELOPED
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS... SO IF SAME SCENARIO
HOLDS TOGETHER CANNOT RULE OUT CHC OF MCV THAT WOULD AFFECT AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH. ALSO UNCERTAIN HOW CURRENT MCV WILL BEHAVE LATER
TODAY.  YET AGAIN CAP STRENGTH WILL BE THE QUESTION AS FAR AS TIMING
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS. BUT WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY IN THE WEST
AND HABIT OF MORNING DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST... CAN NOT RULE OUT RAIN
ANYWHERE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE... MODELS SHOW GENERAL LOOSENING OF THE UPPER
HIGH /STILL SHOWING 3 DM H5 HEIGHT FALLS BY 48 HRS/ AND SLIGHT
COOLING OF THE AMS.  MOS TEMPS LOOK IN THE RIGHT BALLPARK.  BUT
MESOSCALE AND LOCAL FEATURES WILL DOMINATE THE WX AND THEREFORE DO
NOT TRUST SYNOPTIC SCALE MODEL UVV AND PRECIP. NO TIME TO LOOK AT
EXTDD SO WILL LEAVE IT ALONE ATTM.

...SPEG.
OKC   96  71  95  72 /  20  20  20  20
HBR   99  71  98  70 /  20  20  20  20
SPS  100  72  99  71 /  20  20  20  20
GAG   98  68  96  68 /8  40  20  20  20
PNC   98  74  97  74 /  40  20  20  20
DUA   94  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  20

.OKC...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.