Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Norman, OK

FPUS3 KOKC 300905
AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 1997

UPR FLOW TO RMN NWLY TO NLY OVR AREA THRU AT LEAST SAT AS UPR LOW DVLPS
OVR ERN US. SHTWVS DRIVING INTO NWRN US WL NUDGE THE WRN RDG AXIS EWD
INTO NRN/CNTRL HI PLAINS BY SUN, BUT IN MEANTIME MAY HV TO DEAL WITH 1
OR 2 MORE IMPLSS IN N-NW FLOW DROPPING TWD AREA.

CRNT ACTVTY EXPCD TO WKN AND MOVE OFF TO SE AS CDFNT PUSHES INTO EXTRM
SERN ZNS BY 00Z. LOCALIZED HVY RAIN/FLOODING IN SPS AREA ATTM EXPCD TO
RMN LOCALIZED WITH MAIN FOCUS SHIFTING EWD/SEWD ALG OUTFLOW WELL AHD OF
FNT AND AHD OF DVLPG MCV OVR SRN OK/NRN TX. BEST LIFT MOVG INTO AR AND
SERN TX BY EARLY EVE BASED ON ETA PROGS. WL REMOVE POPS FM NWRN ZNS AND
KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN CNTRL/SWRN ZNS FOR THIS MRNG, WHILE GRDLY ENDING
PCPN IN SE DURG MRNG. REDVLPMT ALG FNT THIS AFTN EXPCD TO BE MNLY S AND
E OF AREA WITH BEST CHCS IN SERN ZNS. FOR TNGT WL KEEP A LOW POP IN
EXTRM SERN ZNS THIS EVE. RH PROGS SUGGEST ENUF LINGERING MSTR FOR
CNSDRBL CLD CVR TDA ALTHO SUBSDNC BHD MCV MAY HELP DVLP SOME BREAKS.
MAIN CLRG EXPCD TNGT.

DRYING DEPICTED ON SAT BUT ETA HINTS AT A POTLY TROUBLESOME IMPLS
DROPPING INTO NWRN KS BY LATE SAT. INCRG RH AND DESTBLZTN AHD OF THIS
FEATURE, ALG WITH DVLPMT OF LL CONVGC OVR CNTRL/SRN HI PLAINS, SUGGESTS
POTL FOR HI PLAINS TSTM DVLPMT LATE SAT WITH STRMS ROLLING SWD SAT NGT.
ATTM WL KEEP POPS SAT AND SAT NGT OUT OF FCST IN WRN ZNS AS BEST CHC
APRS TO BE FRTHR W OVR PNHDL AREA.

NO CHGS TO EXTDD.

FATAL ICWF FAILURE THIS MRNG FORCES A MANUAL FCST PREPARATION. EXPC
PSBL DELAYS IN SOME PRODUCTS FM MRNG PKG.

FCSTID = 24
OKC   74  56  78  58 /  30   5   0   5
HBR   75  56  82  58 /  20   5   5  10
SPS   77  58  82  58 /  50   5   0   5
GAG   74  54  80  54 /  10   5  10  10
PNC   76  55  80  59 /  20   5   0   5
DUA   73  58  79  59 /  70  20   0   0

.OKC...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
0225 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0155 AM    6 NE FREDRICK             OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/29/97   TILLMAN

J

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
0225 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0155 AM    6 NEd FREDRICK             OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/29/97   TILLMAN

J

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-311130-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 1997

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE
MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY
DECREASE LATER TODAY AND ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING AND RESULTANT RECOVERY
OF THE STABILIZED AIR OVER THE REGION... COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS TO PREVENT THE AIR FROM
BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE TODAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT THEM
FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING... CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
MIDDAY... AND ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON.

24

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-311130-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
630 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 1997

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE
MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY
DECREASE LATER TODAY AND ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING AND RESULTANT RECOVERY
OF THE STABILIZED AIR OVER THE REGION... COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH ANY LINGERING CLOUDINESS TO PREVENT THE AIR FROM
BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE TODAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT THEM
FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING... CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY
MIDDAY... AND ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON.

24