Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
220 PM CST FRI FEB 28 1997

WHILE MDLS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMNT...PREFER SLGTLY SLOWER ETA SOLUTION
THRU FCST PD. CURRENTLY...WRMFNT STRETCHES ACRS NRN SXNS OF MS/AL MOVG
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY NWD. HWVR NOT MUCH UPR LVL SUPPORT NOTED AS JET MAX
MOVS OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPR LVL ENERGY FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
ARKLATX. ATTM PREFER CHC POPS OVRNIGHT AS WRMFNT MOVS NWD THRU AND OUT
OF MID-STATE SINCE UPR LVL DYNAMICS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. WITH DEWPTS
XPTD TO BE ARD 60 TO THE LWR 60S...SUGGEST RAISING OVRNIGHT LOWS TNGT
INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S DUE TO PERSISTENT SLY FLOW AND CLD COVER.

ON SAT...WARM MOIST LOW LVL FLOW WL KEEP SKIES VARIABLY CLOUDY. AGAIN
ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WL BE SCT AS UPR LVL SUPPORT NOT ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT. PREFER POPS IN THE CHC/GOOD CHC RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE PLATEAU DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE TN
RVR IN WRN/MID TN DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FNT/UPR LVL DIVERGNC.

BY SAT NIGHT/SUN AM...MOIST AMS COUPLED WITH STGR DYNAMICS ALOFT...AND
GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LAYERS...WL SUPPORT WDSPRD
CONVECTION OVR RGN. DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF FNTL SYS AND HIGH PRECIP
WATER VALUES (APPRCHG 1.5 INCHES) TRAINING OF ECHOES COULD CAUSE
PROBLEMS WITH HIGH WATER. WHILE ITS TOO SOON TO ISSUE FFA...WOULD
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY IN FCST TEXT.

CURRENT FEELING IS THAT RAIN/TSTMS WL TAPER OFF ACRS MID TN BY EARLY
SUN AFTN WITH DCRSG CLDINESS OVR WRN COUNTIES. TIMING OF SFC FNT WL
DETERMINE FCST LOWS SAT NIGHT. DUE TO PAST HISTORY BLV THAT FNT WL BE
JUST W OF BNA BY DAYBREAK THUS WOULD FCST OVRNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S
EAST OF I-65 WITH 50S TWDS WRN TN. 850 TEMPS DEPICT GOOD PACKING OF
ISOTHERMS BHND 850 TROF THUS TEMPS SUN WL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR FALL.
09

BNA 62/72/60/60 4597