Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
215 AM CST WED JAN 22 1997

ALTHOUGH CLUSTER OF TSTMS NR BNA CAUSED A LTL STIR OVER
THE LAST HR OR SO, BLV MAIN SVR WX THREAT WILL BE LATER TDY
AS CDFNT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. WE MAY BE LOOKING AT A SIMILAR
PROBLEM POSED BY THE LOW TOP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE
WARNED ON JUST RECENTLY. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 50 KT JET ONLY
A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE GROUND, AND BASE VEL PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAST-MOVING TSTMS JUST E OF BNA TONIGHT
SUGGESTED THAT 36-50KT WINDS WERE PRETTY MUCH RIGHT ON THE
GROUND. THIS TYPE OF LOW-TOP SVR WX EVENT IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE STORMS THAT PRODUCED DAMAGE IN THE BNA AREA JUST A WEEK OR
SO AGO. THEY LOOK BENIGN ON MOST REFL MAPS, BUT ARE ABLE TO
EASILY DRAW HIGH WNDS TO THE SFC THRU REAR-INFLOW JETS AND
PRECIP "DOWNLOADING".

WND PROFILE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR WHEN CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATER TDY, THUS A MORE WELL-DEFINED SVR WX
THREAT COULD DEVELOP THEN. WV LOOPS CONT TO SHOW THE INTRODUCTION
OF DRY AIR INTO THE BACK OF THE TSTSM OVER ARKANSAS, ALTHOUGH
MODELS INDICATE GENERAL ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA SHOULD
REMAIN ONLY MARGINAL. HOWEVER, AS LONG AS LOW LVL JET REMAINS
STRONG AND CLOSE TO THE GROUND BLV SVR WX THREAT DUE TO HIGH WND
WILL REMAIN WITH US AS WELL.

CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND SHOULD REQUIRE FEW
CHANGES. HOWEVER, RECENT SHOWERS DROPPED TEMP TO 49 DEGS AT
THE AIRPORT, AND BELIEVE WE MAY HAVE TROUBLE RECOVERING TO OUR
PROJECTED HIGH IN THE LOWER 60S. MIGHT TRIM BACK CURRENT MAX
TEMP FCST JUST A BIT, ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T GO ANY LOWER THAN UPPER
50S AT BNA.

BNA  60/40/51/38 +100

TNZ005>011-022>033-055>065-075>082-093>098-221905-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CST WED JAN 22 1997

  ... A WINDY AND STORMY DAY EXPECTED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ...

        ... A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA...

A COLD FRONT...PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL PRODUCE SOME WINDY
AND STORMY WEATHER IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY.  SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
40. THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD EASILY PRODUCE EVEN STRONGER
WINDS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ANY LIGHT WEIGHT
ITEMS LEFT OUTSIDE TODAY...SUCH AS TRASH CANS AND BOXES...WILL LIKELY
BECOME PLAYTHINGS FOR THE WIND. CERTAIN ACTIVITIES TODAY WILL
PRESENT AN INCREASED CHALLENGE...INCLUDING SUCH THINGS AS DRIVING
(AND CONTROLLING) HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AS WELL AS NAVIGATING AREA
LAKES AND WATERWAYS. BOATERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CHOPPY AND
TURBULENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON AREA LAKES...AND CAUTION IS
STRONGLY ADVISED.

ONE OF THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TODAY WILL BE HIGH WIND...
AND THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE SUCH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE. REMEMBER...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN SOMETIMES STRIKE WITH VERY LITTLE...OR NO...
ADVANCED WARNING. ALWAYS BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO YOUR AREA...AND LISTEN TO A RELIABLE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR ANYt WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE
ISSUED.

TNZ005>011-022>033-055>065-075>082-093>098-221905-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CST WED JAN 22 1997

  ... A WINDY AND STORMY DAY EXPECTED IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ...

        ... A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA...

A COLD FRONT...PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL PRODUCE SOME WINDY
AND STORMY WEATHER IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY.  SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
40. THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD EASILY PRODUCE EVEN STRONGER
WINDS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ANY LIGHT WEIGHT
ITEMS LEFT OUTSIDE TODAY...SUCH AS TRASH CANS AND BOXES...WILL LIKELY
BECOME PLAYTHINGS FOR THE WIND. CERTAIN ACTIVITIES TODAY WILL
PRESENT AN INCREASED CHALLENGE...INCLUDING SUCH THINGS AS DRIVING
(AND CONTROLLING) HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AS WELL AS NAVIGATING AREA
LAKES AND WATERWAYS. BOATERS SHOULD REALIZE THAT CHOPPY AND
TURBULENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON AREA LAKES...AND CAUTION IS
STRONGLY ADVISED.

ONE OF THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TODAY WILL BE HIGH WIND...
AND THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE SUCH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE. REMEMBER...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN SOMETIMES STRIKE WITH VERY LITTLE...OR NO...
ADVANCED WARNING. ALWAYS BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO YOUR AREA...AND LISTEN TO A RELIABLE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE
ISSUED.