Severe Thunderstorm Warning 332, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
230 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 1997

MOTHER NATURE HAS PLAYED HAVOC WITH OUR FCST POPS LAST 24 HRS.
IT'S BEEN HARD TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON TIMING OF RAIN EVENTS,
AND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PROMISE TO OFFER US MORE THAN OUR
FAIR SHARE OF ADDITIONAL FCST CHALLENGES.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY
A MID-UPPER LVL JET ACTING ON A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS,  IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SFC BOUNDARY, WITH SGFNT DBZ CORES ASCENDING
WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. RECEIVED QUITE A FEW LARGE HAIL
REPORTS TONIGHT, ASSOCIATED WITH SVR TSTMS OVER SRN PARTS OF OUR AREA.

LATEST SFC REPORTS SHOW FNTL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KY TO
NEAR BNA, NRN MS AND SRN ARKANSAS, WHICH IS MUCH FURTHER S THAN
PREDICTED BY EITHER ETA OR NGM. EXPECT MIDDLE TN TO REMAIN IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO QUASI-STATIONARY FNT TDY, AND PROVIDE ANOTHER
SGFNT CHALLENGE FOR TEMP AND POP FCSTS. S OF FNT, EXPECT SOME BREAKS
IN LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH SCTD TSTMS. NORTH OF FNT,

EXPECT MORE OVC CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY LGT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EWD TOWARD LOWER MS VALLEY TDY, EXPECT
FNT TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FNT. THUS, BY LATE
TDY EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN LOW CLDS AT MOST AREAS, WITH AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPS BTWN 70 AND 75 DEGS.

WOULD PROBABLY BUMP POPS UP FOR TDY, MORE IN LINE WITH FAN/FWC
GUIDANCE AND KEEP THEM IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE THEREAFTER.

THINGS COULD REALLY START ROCKIN' AND ROLLIN' SUNDAY, AS SFC
FNT SLICES INTO UNSTABLE AMS AND LOW PRES TRACKS ACROSS KY AND
MAY BE LOOKING AT A SPRING STYLE SVR WX OUTBREAK. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SITUATION, ESPECIALLY SINCE STRONG UPPER
LVL JET REMAINS IN PLACE DURING ENTIRE TIME.

BNA 72/61/72/50 5885