Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
650 PM CST SAT JAN 4 1997

WILL GO AHEAD AND SEND ALONG IDEAS REGARDING TSTMS TONIGHT, AS
WELL AS LATEST 00Z RAOB STATS. HAVE WATCHED TSTM LN DEVELOP AND
PUSH THRU WRN TN THIS EVENING, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF TSTMS RMNS
ACTIVE FURTHER BACK TO THE NW IN SERN MO. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
CLEARLY SHOWS THAT TSTMS IN WRN TN HAVE FORMED ALONG AREA OF
MAX WAA, WHILE STORMS IN SERN MO SEEM TO BE RIGHT ALONG CDFNT
(WHICH WAS JUST E OF LIT AT 23Z). BLV SOME STRONG TSTMS COULD
MOVE INTO SWRN MIDDLE TN BTWN 8 AND 10 PM, WITH SHOWERS AND LESS
INTENSE TSTMS FURTHER N. LATEST KNQA REFL SEEMS TO HINT AT A
PSBL LEWP FORMING, AND HELICITY IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO KEEP
MIDDLE TENESSEANS ALERT TO THE PSBLTY FOR SVR WX THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. INDEED, SINCE FNT WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO PUSH
EWD DURING THE NIGHT (AND SLOWER THAN SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS WUD
INDICATE) BLV THERE IS A GUD PSBLTY THAT ADDITIONAL TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
BEHIND THIS FIRST LINE LATE TONIGHT (AS INDICATED BY KNQA PICS).
<<
SINCE THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THRUST OF CAA BEHIND THE FNT, BLV THE
MIN FCST FOR TONIGHT IS A LTL OFF THE MARK. THUS, WUD PROBABLY UP
TEMPS TO THE 50 TO 55 DEG RANGE INSTEAD.

ONE OF THE BIGGEST SVR WX THREATS TONIGHT WILL BE DUE TO HIGH
WINDS, AS INDICATED IN PREDICTED STORM MOTION VALUES NR 40 MPH
AND HELICITY VALUES ABV 300.

ALSO, IF ANY AREAS HAPPEN TO GET "DUMPED ON" TWICE TONIGHT WITH
HVY RAIN WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ISOLATED URBAN-TYPE FLOODING
1-HR FFG AT BNA IS 1.0").

THUS, LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BUSY WEATHER NIGHT AHEAD.

00Z BNA RAOB STATS

LI -2,    CAPE 293,     STORM MOTION 236 DEG 36 KT,

PWA 1.31,    EL+20% 38K FT,

TNZ005>011-022>033-055>065-075>082-093>098-051005-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
401 PM CST SAT JAN 4 1997

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...
...COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS ARKANSAS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE WIND
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SUCH THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
55 MPH. FOR AREAS OF WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INCLUDING
CLARKSVILLE...WAVERLY...CENTERVILLE AND LAWRENCEBURG...THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 6 AND
10 PM. FOR AREAS AROUND NASHVILLE...MURFREESBORO AND
SHELBYVILLE...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
BETWEEN 8 PM AND 12 MIDNIGHT. FOR AREAS NEAR THE PLATEAU SUCH AS

COOKEVILLE...MCMINNVILLE AND PIKEVILLE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE CLOSER TO 12 MIDNIGHT. RESIDENTS ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO A RELIABLE SOURCE OF
WEATEHR INFORMATION THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT...
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL USHER COLDER AIR INTO THE
MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S. THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST TIME THAT MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS BEEN BELOW
FREEZING SINCE THE MORNING OF DECEMBER 26TH. TEMPERATURES INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WHILE THIS AIRMASS IS NOT BITTERLY COLD...IT WILL BE IN SHARP
CONTRAST TO THE MUCH ABOVE TEMPERATURES MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING THE PAST WEEK.

TNZ005>011-022>033-055>065-075>082-093>098-050825-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
821 PM CST SAT JAN 4 1997

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 2 AM CST.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNTIL 2 AM CST...AND INCLUDES THE CITIES OF NASHVILLE...COOKEVILLE
... COLUMBIA...CLARKSVILLE...WAVERLY AND LAWRENCEBURG. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45
MPH TONIGHT...AND SOME STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME SEVERE (WITH WINDS
OF 55 MPH OR GREATER). SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CAN PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL IN EXCESS OF 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER. THUS, WHEN STORMS MOVE INTO
YOUR AREA...BE ALERT...AND LISTEN FOR ANY WEATHER WARNINGS THAT
MIGHT BE ISSUED. REMEMBER...SINCE IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM TO STRIKE WITHIN ONLY MINUTES AFTER A WARNING IS
ISSUED...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED TO REACT QUICKLY.

SOME PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAY ACTUALLY SEE TWO SEPARATE ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  IN WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AROUND
NASHVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...WAVERLY AND LAWRENCEBURG...THE FIRST
ROUND WILL OCCUR MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS LATER IN THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...EACH BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH IN ONLY AN HOUR'S
TIME. SUCH RAINFALL RATES WERE ESTIMATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN T*ENNESSEE EARLIER TONIGHT. THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
SPOTS IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE COULD RECEIVE RAIN TOTALS TONIGHT BETWEEN 1
AND 2 INCHES BEFORE THE NIGHT IS THROUGH.