Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
305 PM EDT MON APR 21 1997

VERY IMPRESSIVE E-W BNDRY STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF BNA THROUGH
CSV AND INTO THE SMOKIES.  KMRX 88D CONTINUES TO SHOW TRAINING OF
CELLS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AND WITH MORE CONVECTION FIRING UP TO THE
WEST I AM A LTL CONCERNED WITH FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND
CNTRL VLY.  THE WARM FNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SE TN WL ONLY ADD TO
THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.  ADAP IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SURFACE BASED LIS BETWEEN -4
AND -6 SOUTH OF THE WARM FNT.  SO I WOULD LIKE TO MENTION SVR STORMS
FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS E-W BNDRY MAINLY SE TN...SW NC...CNTRL
VLY AND THE PLATEAU.  AS STATED EARLIER LARGE HAIL WL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

BLV THE ACTIVITY WL TEND TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFT MIDNIGHT.  ALTHOUGH
I WOULD NOT TOTALLY TAKE OUT THE POPS COMPLETELY AS A WK VORT MAX WL
TRACK QUICKLY THROUGH KY LATER ON TNT.

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE NOW MORE IN AGREEMENT BEYOND 24 HOURS THAN THEY
HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS.  THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS THE MEAN TROUGH POSN ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS FINALLY DIGS SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON TUE.  RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF A SFC CYCLONE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WL TAKE PLACE
TUE NIGHT INTO WED.  WE COULD BE DEALING WITH MORE SVR WX/HVY RAIN
WITH THIS EPISODE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.  ALTHOUGH I FEEL MCS ACTIVITY
ACROSS MS/AL/GA WL LKLY LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT AS IS USUAL THE CASE.
LKLY/CAT POPS WL BE NEEDED.

STEPPING BACK TO TUE FOR A MINUTE.  I THINK WE MAY ACTUALLY DRY OUT
AS THE FNT SHIFTS TO A POSN JUST SOUTH OF SE TN AND SW NC.  SO WOULD
US:E CHC/LKLY POPS FOR THIS RGN WHILE CHC POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

GUIDANCE TEMPS GNLY ACCEPTED.

MB