Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
200 PM EST SUN NOV 30 1997

AFTER COORD WITH SPC...DECIDED A WATCH IS IN ORDER LATE THIS AFTN/EVE
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF EAST TN.  AS STATED EARLIER IN THE ATO THE MAIN
THREAT WL BE LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AND VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT.

THE UPR LOW WL CONTINUE TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF EAST TNT REACHING NE
AL/NW GA BY 00Z AND THE SC COAST BY 12Z MON.  THUS RAPID CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED TNT AND EARLY MON.  AFTER THIS EVE'S CONVECTION THE CHC
FOR MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WL INCREASE LATE TNT AS THE MID/UPR LVL
DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND EXITS BY THE MORNING.
ANOTHER THIRD AREA OF PCPN IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING THROUGH CNTRL EAST TN
AND HEADING TWDS NE TN AND SW VA.  THIS IS IN ASSCTN WITH THE OCCLD
FNT.  INSTEAD OF GETTING TOO FANCY WITH THE TIMING OF THESE THREE
SEPARATE AREAS OF PCPN I WOULD JUST GO WITH LKLY POPS FOR ALL ZONES
TNT.

RAPID CLEARING EXCEPT ACROSS SW VA AND EXTREME NE TN WL TAKE PLACE ON
MON AS THE MAIN COLD FNT BLASTS THROUGH.  WINDS WL BE QUITE BREEZY
BEHIND THE FNT.  WOULD CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN ALL THE ZONES.
TRANQUIL AND DRY WX WL BE THE RULE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FTCST PD.

OVERALL I PREFER THE FAN NOS THROUGHOUT.

MB