Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
215 PM EDT MON AUG 4 1997

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED S/WV AND UPPER LEVEL JET
PUNCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY/WV PRODUCING AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIV
OVER SE KY AND VA. BEST AREA OF LO LVL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGD TO BE
ACROSS SW VA/NE TN THIS AFTERNOON AS PRE-FNTL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. WOULD CONTINUE WITH A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS
EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHC ELSW. UNSEASONABLY STG CD FNT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...GRIDDED DATA SHOWS ANOTHER S/WV MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW. THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCT/SCT
SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NVA/SUBSIDENCE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALLOWING SKIES
TO CLEAR WITH BRISK NORTHERLY BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AMS WILL LIKELY
BRING NEAR RECORD/OR RECORD BREAKING LOWS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

FOR TEMPS...I PREFER THE COOLER FAN NOS TONIGHT AND TUE. FWC NOS LOOK
GOOD FOR TUE NIGHT WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD LOWS AT TRI/TYS/AND CHA.
WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AT TRI. WOULD
SUGGEST CALLING FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S FOR SW VA/NE TN MTNS/AND
SMOKY MOUNTAINS. FWC/FAN NOS LOOK GOOD FOR WED.

DH