Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
230 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 1997

UA ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF AN INVERSION NEAR 700 MB
KEPT CONVECTION OUT OF THE REGION YDA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND JKL
WSR-88D SHOWS A MCC OVER OH/WV/FAR NE KY. THIS MCC HAS DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO MODERATELY STG/STG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PRESENCE OF
A SFC/850 MB TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
HOWEVER...I DO EXPECT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TO MAKE IT INTO SW VA/NE
TN BY SUNRISE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LEAVE SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR
WIDELY SCT/SCT CONVECTION FOR THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE ERN TN MTNS/SW VA/NE TN.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG. FOR MONDAY...MODELS SHOW UPR
RIDGE WEAKENING SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY
STG UPR TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE WEAKENING
OF THE UPR RIDGE AND PRESENCE OF HIGHER THETA-E VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDELY SCT/SCT CONVECTION FOR TOMORROW...
BUT MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AS FOR TEMPS...WOULD TREND TWD THE FAN VALUES. HIGHS TODAY MAY BE A
LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH MCC OVER THE LOWER OHIO
MOVES.

DH