Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
225 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 1997

SATELLITE SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING VORT MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN MO WITH
A VORT LOBE ROTATING EWD OVER W TN/W KY. THIS LOBE...WHICH MAY HAVE
BEEN INITIATED FROM LAST NIGHTS MCC...IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING A
LINE OF STG TO POTENTIALLY SVR STMS OVER THE WEST OF TN/W KY. THIS
LINE OF STMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
CAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING NEAR 2500 J/KG WITH ADAP LIFTED INDICES OF
-7 TO -8. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AT THE MID-LVLS SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING STG DAMAING DOWNBURSTS WINDS. WBZ
VALUES OF NEAR 10,000 SUGGEST MARGINAL SVR HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE LVLS WITH PWS NEAR 1.4 INCHES...SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TOREENTIAL RAINS WITH LOCALLIZED RUN OFF
PROBLEMS POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD NOT SUGGEST A FFA.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE MO S/WV ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WITH GRIDDED DATA SHOWING MODERATE DIV ALOFT...
PVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. AGAIN...GIVEN THE HIGH PWS SOME
OF THESE STORMS SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING
LOCALLIZED FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS.

THE S/WV MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE TN VALLEY BY LATE TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. WOULD CALL FOR SOME
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS SATURDAY...THEN DECREASING CLOUDS.  DRIER
NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
AREA-WIDE AND LESS MUGGY CONDS.

AS FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE TEMPS CLOSE AND REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT...BUT
WOULD TREND TWD FWC NOS FOR SAT NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY...WOULD SUGGEST FOLLOWING THE
COOLER HIGHS FOR TOMORROW IF NOT A CAT LOWER. RETURN OF LATE SPRING
SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY FOR FATHERS DAY
AND WOULD TREND TWD THE WRMR FWC NOS.

HAVE A GREAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...

DH