Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
254 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 1997

SHORT-TERM...NOT A LOT OF ACTVTY THUS FAR IN THE FFA AREAS OR MRX
CWA IN GENERAL.  SFC ANLYS INDCS WEAK FNTL BNDRY HAS LIFTED NE OF
MY CWA...WITH ADAP SHOWING MAIN AXIS OF LO LVL MSTR CONVGNC FROM NWRN
NC ACROSS VA INTO SRN W VA ATTM.  GRIDDED DATA SHOWED THETA-E RIDGE
THAT AREA WITH LATEST ADAP INDCG LIFTED INDICES (LI) OF -4 TO -6.
DIALING INTO KFCX 88D INDCS THAT THIS CONVECTION IS WELL E OF MY SWRN
VA COUNTIES.  SO FAR JUST SPOTTY RW ON PLATEAU.  GUT FEELING IS THAT
UNLESS MORE WIDESPREAD AND STG CONVECTION DOES NOT FIRE SHORTLY THEN
WFOS COULD DROP FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OVERNIGHT.  HAVE BEEN MONITORING
TWO RIVERS IN OUR AREA THAT HAD RISEN...EMORY RIVER AND SOUTH
CHICKAMAUGA...WITH BOTH WELL BELOW FS AND FALLING ATTM.  WOULD HANG ON
TO CHC POPS AT LEAST FOR TNGT...SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ZONES.  MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND NEAR SIMILAR FWC/FAN MINS LOOKS GOOD.

LATER PERIODS...MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NEARLY VERTICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY MOVE E TO ALLOW OUR CWA TO BE ON BACK SIDE
OF UPR LOW BY TUE.  STLT PICS SUGGEST A VORT LOBE MAY BE ROTATING SWD
INTO W TN AND NRN MISS ATTM...WITH THIS FEATURE PROGD TO BE THEN
LIFTING NE INTO OUR CWA BY 12Z MON.  PSBL WEAK SFC TROF MON BUT
OVERALL A LOW LVL BNDRY TO FOCUS CONVECTION MON MIGHT ALSO BE LACKING.
BOTH ETA/NGM GRIDDED DATA SHOWED BEST INSTBY AND LO LVL CONVERGENCE TO
BE VICINITY OF SW VA AND EXTRM NE TN ZONES MON...WHERE BEST UPR LVL
DIVERGENCE WAS ALSO DEPICTED.  40-50% POPS GOOD FOR MON WHEN ACTVTY
SHOULD STILL BE SCTRD IN COVERAGE.  FOR LAST TWO PERIODS I FAVOR THE
LOWER FWC POPS.  FWC MAXES LOOK OKAY MON AND PTUE WITH BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE OTRW THE COOLER FAN MIGHT VERIFY BEST...ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

TG/10