Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
315 PM EDT MON APR 28 1997

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS FCST PERIOD. MODERATELY STG 850 MB/
SFC CONVERGENCE...300 MB DIVERENGENCE...COOLING ALOFT...AND AVAILABLE
LO LVL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE WIDE SPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE REST OF THIS AFTERNOONA AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES.

CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH GREATLY BY MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. UPPER SUPPORT MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY...BUT GRIDDED DATA SHOWS STG LO LVL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WIDELY SCT/
SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET TUESDAY. OTRW...AFTER SOME MORNING LO CLOUDS
AND FOG I EXPECT A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY AREA-WIDE TOMMORROW.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PATCHY FOG ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER STG S/WV MOVES OUT OUT THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
FOR WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
BUT LO LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE CLOSE AND REASONABLE.

DH