Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
145 AM EST SUN OCT 26 1997

SUGGESTIONS...IT WOULD BE FOOLISH NOT TO KEEP THE ONGOING CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TODAY...AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL (ERN PARTS OF CWA) FOR
TNGT.  OTRW...MODELS SEEM IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND VERY CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.

ALTHOUGH CURRENT STORMS THIS MRNG ARE MUCH LESS INTENSE THAN 24 HRS
AGO...THERE IS STILL NEAR SOLID COVERAGE ON BOTH KHTX AND KMRX 88DS.
LATEST DAY1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS SLGT RISK OF SVR STORMS JUST S OF OUR
CWA.  THIS MAY WORK OUT QUITE WELL...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME WHEN WAA AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT REMAINS QUITE STG COUPLED WITH INCRSG DIVERGENCE ALOFT.  SFC
BASED LIFTED INDICES NOT TOO UNSTABLE ATTM...BUT BOTH CAPE AND
HELICITY INCRS BY 18Z TODAY AS WARM FNT LIFTS N INTO THE CWA.  HAVE
ALREADY SEEN WEAK MID-LVL ROTATION WITH STORMS IN EXTRM NRN AL THIS
MRNG.  WINDEX OUTPUT FROM ETA MODEL INDCD POTENTIAL FOR 50KT GUSTS
WITH ANY DOWNBURSTS BY THIS AFTN.

FOR TNGT...SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ON THE DECLINE BY 27/00Z...ESPECIALLY
FOR PLATEAU AREA...WHICH FITS WELL WITH ONGOING FCSTS OF JUST CHC POPS
FOR CSV AREA TNGT.  FOR MON...I LIKE THE MENTION OF CHC POPS EARLY
IN CRW'S FCST FOR SWRN VA.  WONDERING IF WE NEED A SLGT CHC FOR MON
MRNG ALSO IN TN ZONE GROUPS 1 AND 3?   FOR TEMPS...WOULD STAY BELOW
THE WARMER FWC MAXES FOR TODAY...MIGHT NUDGE TNGT'S LOWS DOWNWARD
AS 00Z MOS VALUES ARE FEW DEGS COOLER THAN 12Z MOS.  50S LOOK GOOD
FOR MON MAXES...BUT MIGHT LOWER CSV GROUP TO UPR 40S WHERE BEST CAA
WAS PROGD.

WILL TRY TO PUT THE EXTRA HOUR TO GOOD USE...AND FOR NOW BACK TO THE
WSR-88DS AND TAFS.  #10

TG

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-034>047-066>074-083>087-099>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-261500-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
300 AM EST SUN OCT 26 1997

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA HAD DIMINISHED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS TO OUR SOUTH...
GENERALLY OVER MOST OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS CONTINUED TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS COVERING MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.  A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE A
COLD FRONT ALSO ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THESE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 30 TO 40 MPH AND PRODUCE AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS.  MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE HAD ALREADY RECEIVED A SOAKING OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.  ALSO...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL.  FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS.  PERSONS LIVING NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES...SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR AT LEAST MINOR RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS THIS MORNING.  BE READY
TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR
YOUR COUNTY.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TG

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-034>047-066>074-083>087-099>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-261500-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
300 AM EST SUN OCT 26 1997

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA HAD DIMINISHED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS TO OUR SOUTH...
GENERALLY OVER MOST OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS CONTINUED TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS COVERING MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.  A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE A
COLD FRONT ALSO ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THESE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
AT 30 TO 40 MPH AND PRODUCE AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS.  MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE HAD ALREADY RECEIVED A SOAKING OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.  ALSO...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL.  FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR WITH
ANY OF THESE STORMS.  PERSONS LIVING NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES...SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR AT LEAST MINOR RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS THIS MORNING.  BE READY
TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WAR"NINGS BE ISSUED FOR
YOUR COUNTY.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TG