Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
1015 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 1997

LINE OF THUNDERSHOWWERS MOVG ESE FROM MID TN TOWARD OUR CWA.  ALTHO
IT'S WEAKND SOME IN LAST COUPLE HRS...IT'S STILL HOLDING TOGETHER.
DIFFICULT TO SEE FORCING FOR THIS LINE...WHICH PERHAPS WAS INITIATED
BY OUTFLO BNDRY SET OFF BY DYING CONVECT THIS MORN IN AL.  PREV AFD
SUGGESTED LWR POPS FOR TN VLY...WUD BUMP THAT UP AT LST 10 PCT NOW...
GIVEN THAT THERE IS SOME MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION FOR CONVECT.
HWVR...A LITTLE LESS UNST IN EAST TN COMPARED TO MID STATE...SO XPCT
CONTINUED WEAKENING.

OTHRW...XPCT ANOTHER DAY LIKE YEST AS FAR AS CONVECT GOES.  SPENT A
LOT OF TIME LOOKING AT MOD SNDG.  IT SHOWS A LITTLE LESS DRY CONDS
ALFT...PROB A REFLECT OF UPR LOW (NOW IN NRN GA).  WBZ A LITTLE HIER
TOO.  ALSO...STRONGER SW FLOW IN LWR TROP SEEMS TO BE GIVING A LITTLE
FASTER MVMNT TO THE CONVECT TODAY.  SO...A LITTLE SMALLER
HAIL...DOWNBURST INTENSITY...AND RAINFALL AMTS SEEM TO BE IN THE
OFFING.  EMPHASIS IS ON "A LITTLE" HWVR.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH MESOSCALE
ORGAN OF APCHNG LINE TO SEE IF IT HANGS TOGETHER...IF IT DOES
INTENSITY OF CONVECT CUD BE GREATER THAN YEST.

UPR LO STILL HAS A zLITTLE COOL POCKET ASSOC...DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOS...AND WON'T GO ANYWHERE THRU TOMORO.

SMH