Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE ALABAMA
250 AM THU JUN 19 1997

CURRENT MAPS INDICATE SUMMER PATTERN SFC-700MB WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF
FLORIDA EAST COAST RIDGING WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST STATES AND GULF OF
MEXICO. WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL TROF NOTED EXTENDING FROM THE
VIRGINIAS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF GEORGIA...ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI. CURRENT IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS TROF.

00Z MODELS SIMILAR IN KEEPING LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD (00Z SAT). VERY WEAK SFC TROF
PROGGED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN GULF JUST
SOUTH OF FCST AREA BY PERIODS END AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST EAST
OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN MAINTAINING WEAK UPPER TROF
AND WEAK VORTICITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. LOLVL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS ABUNDANT AS PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWS DOWN AND TIME SECTION
INDICATES MOISTURE DEPTH NOT AS GREAT ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY...DO EXPECT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SOME HELP FROM WEAK UPPER SUPPORT
...WILL SEE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. WITH HEATING AND SEA BREEZE THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISMS FOR PCPN...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT HOWEVER. WILL LEAN TOWARD SLIGHTLY WETTER FAN
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...WITH FWC LOOKING GOOD THEREAFTER. CANT ARGUE
TOO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

OVER THE MARINE AREA...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN DATA INDICATING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS...WITH SEAS 3 FEET NEAR SHORE AND
UP TO AROUND 5 FEET OFFSHORE. MODELS INDICATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SITUATED OVER EASTERN GULF. WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. SEAS 3-5
FEET INITIALLY...DECREASING 2-3 FEET ON FRIDAY.

MOB 88/72/89/72 4231  PNS 89/73/89/73 4232
DTS 87/73/88/73 4232  EVR 89/68/90/69 3131 12

ALZ051>64-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-FLZ001>006-201200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST AL...NORTHWEST FL AND SOUTHEAST MS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE ALABAMA
510 AM CDT JUN 19 1997

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL SUPPLY THE FUEL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
TODAY...AND WILL ACT AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS
TO DESTABALIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. IN ADDITION...A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY LATE MORNING...AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND. WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FEET SHOULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT QUITE AS MOIST
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL DUE
TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY OR THIS EVENING.