Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EST SUN NOV 2 1997

CURRENT KMLB/TBW CR TIME LAPSES SHOW LEWP TYPE CONVECTION MOVING INTO
CENTRAL CWA...WITH CELLS WITHIN IT ACQUIRING SOME PERSISTENT ROTATION
AS ENVIRONMENTAL HELICITY REMAINS HIGH. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA WELL OFFSHORE SW FLORIDA...THIS IS WHERE LEWPS ARE
FOCUSING...AND I LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY RE-DEVELOP
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE (BREV/OSCEOLA SOUTH) THROUGH SUN-UP

FARTHER NORTH...SQUALL LINE ALONG SFC COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED SINCE
06Z ON RADAR/SAT TRENDS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO ORIENTATION OF
LINE WHICH IS PARALLEL TO LOW/MID JET...PLUS MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

FOR TODAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS PENINSULA
...REACHING CENTRAL CWA BY AROUND 18Z. 850 WINDS ARE PROGGED TO
WEAKEN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY 18Z...CWA IS WITHIN RR
QUAD OF UPPER JET. INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHT DURING EARLY MORNING
...BUT STILL THINK THERE'S AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF LINE REINTENSIFYING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS
INVOF FRONT.

FAN POPS FAVORED FOR MOST OF CWA OVER FWC NUMBERS.

CRISTALDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
455 AM EST SUN NOV 02 1997

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1250 AM    NEW SMYRNA BEACH          FL   TORNADO
11/02/97   VOLUSIA                        *** 14 INJ ***
                                          APPARENT TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN
                                          ALONG THE NORTH CAUSEWAY (S.R.
                                          44) IN NEW SMYRNA BEACH. 8 TO
                                          10 HOUSES REPORTED AS 80%
                                          DAMAGED BY EOC. DAMAGE ALSO
                                          TO TWO 8-STORY TOWERS OF THE
                                          DIAMOND HEAD CONDOMINIUMS. THE
                                          TOP FLOOR OF ONE UNIT COLLAPSED
                                          TRAPPING PEOPLE INSIDE. 14
                                          PEOPLE TAKEN TO HOSPITAL. SOME
                                          POWER POLES/LINES ALSO DOWN.

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-021130-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
600 AM EST SUN NOV 2 1997

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...

A LINE OF STRONG STORMS EXTENDING FROM INDIAN RIVER COUNTY TO NEAR
SARASOTA ON THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A WABASSO TO
YEEHAW JUNCTION LINE THIS MORNING. FARTHER NORTH...A LINE OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS MAY ALLOW
SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY INTO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH OF
ORLANDO AND TITUSVILLE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE UNTIL
ABOUT NOON. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

STORMS WHICH FORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH. FREQUENT
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STORMS TODAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 57 MPH... HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE STORMS. RESIDENTS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE STATEMENTS OR
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE. TAKE SHELTER
AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER. SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE
ADVISED THAT ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY SOMETIME TODAY.

MARINE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
LATE MORNING NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TO
THE SOUTH. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 35
KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY
MARINE STORM CAN PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

CRISTALDI

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-021130-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
600 AM EST SUN NOV 2 1997

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...

A LINE OF STRONG STORMS EXTENDING FROM INDIAN RIVER COUNTY TO NEAR
SARASOTA ON THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A WABASSO TO
YEEHAW JUNCTION LINE THIS MORNING. FARTHER NORTH...A LINE OF SHOWERS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS MAY ALLOW
SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO INTENSIFY INTO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH OF
ORLANDO AND TITUSVILLE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE UNTIL
ABOUT NOON. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE...STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

STORMS WHICH FORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 45 MPH. FREQUENT
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STORMS TODAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 57 MPH... HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE STORMS. RESIDENTS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE STATEMENTS OR
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE. TAKE SHELTER
AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER. SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE
ADVISED THAT ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY SOMETIME TODAY.

MARINE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
LATE MORNING NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...AND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TO
THE SOUTH. STRONGER ST"ORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 35
KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY
MARINE STORM CAN PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

CRISTALDI