Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
215 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 1997

RDU: STICK CLOSE TO GUID TEMPS THIS PACKAGE.  40 POPS FOR
TONIGHT...30 SUN AND SUN NIGHT/MON.

CWF: I WILL BE FOLLOWG THE FWC MOS WIND FOR DIRECTIONAL GUIDANCE AS
THEY HAVE OUTPERFORMED THE FOUS WINDS.  THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF SHIFT TO THE NW OR N TONIGHT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO ILM BEFORE
FLOW REORIENTATES ITSELF S-SW LTR SUN.  IN ADDITION DIFFERENTIAL
HEATG IS CAUSING STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE E-W BEACHES AND THUS
HIGHER SEAS THAN INDICATED BY ILM.  MOVING THE SPLIT DOWN TO HAT
SOUNDS OK TO ME.  WINDS AFTER THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT
OR LESS AND NO SCA IS PLANNED ALTHOUGH DSNL MAY AGAIN REACH NR 25 KT
TONIGHT.

DISC: APPEARS THE CAP IS BROKEN AS TSRA RAPIDLY FIRING ALONG
SEA-BREEZE AND TMB ACROSS ESTRN NC.  TELCO WITH SELS AND WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  BIG CAPES AND HORRENDOUS INSTAB (NGM IS FCSTG
L.I. OF -12 AT ILM) WITH DRY MID LVLS MEANS TSRA WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUST POTENTIAL.  WBZ HEIGHS ARE NOT TOO HIGH CONSIDERING WARMTH OF
AIRMASS SO LARGE HAIL ALSO LIKELY.  AFTER TSRA THREAT TONIGHT...GUID
IS SUGGESTING A LGT NRLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS FVRBL FOR
WIDESPREAD ST AND BR THROUGH SUN AM.

FRONT WILL BECOME LESS DEFINED SUN AND SUN NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
MEAN RH.  THUS POPS CAN BE LOWERED TO 20 BUT COLD MID LVL TEMPS AND
SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL GENERATE WDLY SCT CELLS.  ON MON IT
APPEARS FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH BETTER PCPN
CHS FOR NRN SECTIONS.  WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT KKEP POPS
ARND 20.

.MHX...NONE

JME

NCZ080-095-093-090-079-081-092-091-029-104-098-094-044-046-045-
103-052300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT NC
557 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA UNTIL 9 PM...

AT 555 PM...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A BAND OF VERY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM
JACKSONVILLE NORTHEAST TO BAYBORO AND THE SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND.  THE
STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH 7 PM BEFORE WEAKENING.
THESE STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR LOCALLY
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

PERSONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
MOTORISTS ARE ALSO ADVISED TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELLING AS FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY.

JH

NCZ080-095-093-090-079-081-092-091-029-104-098-094-044-046-045-
103-052300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT NC
557 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA UNTIL 9 PM...

AT 555 PM...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A BAND OF VERY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM
JACKSONVILLE NORTHEAST TO BAYBORO AND THE SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE SOUND.  THE
STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH 7 PM BEFORE WEAKENING.
THESE STORMS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR LOCALLY
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

PERSONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.
MOTORISTS ARE ALSO ADVISED TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELLING AS FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY.

JH