Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
335 PM CST THU APR 3 1997

MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN MOVEMENT OF WESTERN UPPER LOW.
GOES 9 LOOP SHOWS THAT LOW HAS INDEED STARTED TO NUDGE EWD.  ALSO
SYS COMING INTO PAC NW WILL HELP TO KICK SW U.S. LOW TO EAST.  PROGS
SHOW SURFACE TROF/PAC COLD FNT ALONG NM/TX BDR AT 24 HOURS...WITH
SHORT WAVE PASSING BORDER AT 36 HOURS.  WOULD EXPECT SOME CLEARING
AFTER FRONT PASSES AND BEFORE SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS MORE CLOUDS
UNDER COOLING TEMPS ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  SO MAY HAVE SUN IN
MORNING...BUT BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS LAYER IN AFTERNOON.

WITH CLOUDINESS HANGING AROUND FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY...THINK THAT
STRONGEST WINDS MAY HOLD OFF TILL SATURDAY WHEN GRADIENT IS STILL
TIGHT...BUT DEEPER MIXING WILL PREVAIL UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

POPCORN STORMS DEVELOPING IN TROPICAL AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON.  FEW
REPORTS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH HAIL SO FAR.  MODELS INDICATE THAT MID
LEVELS WILL BE SLOWLY DRYING OUT THIS EVENING...THEN A FASTER DRY
PUNCH IS DUE INTO REGION LATE TONIGHT...BEST PUNCH IN SOUTHERN
HALF OF AREA.  LOOKING AT WV LOOP...THINK THAT MODELS MAY BE
UNDER-ESTIMATING RH GRADIENT OUT WEST.  WHEN DRY PUNCH COMES IN
COULD GET STRONGER (SPRING-TYPE VERSUS TROPICAL) STORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A TRANSITION FROM HEAVY RAIN
TROPICAL STORMS THIS EVENING TO MORE OF A SEVERE TYPE STRUCTURE LATE
TONIGHT.

      TEMPS  POPS
MAF   58 72  70 0
CNM   55 6n5  60 0
MRF   47 58  50 0
P07   58 74  70 0

MATHEWS

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-040500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1212 PM CST (1112 AM MST) THU APR 3 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

SYNOPSIS:
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
MIDDLE PARTS OF ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SKIES HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED IN THE UPPER PARTS OF PECOS RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING...THIS CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON THAT WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED IN
NORTHERN LEA AND EDDY COUNTIES.  THIS BOUNDARY IS THE LOCATION FOR
BEST FOCUS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA AND MAY SERVE AS AN AREA FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.  WITH
MID LEVEL WINDS FLOWING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MAINLY STAY IN THE NEW MEXICO PORTION OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION IS HEAVY RAIN.  WITH THE HIGH
MOISTURE AMOUNTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY DROP
HEAVY RAINS.  REPEATED STORMS OVER AN AREA COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A FEW HOURS IN SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

MATHEWS