Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
254 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 1997

A LOOK AT SATELLITE REVEALS LOW CLOUDS VERY SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER
FA SE ZONES...WHILE ACCAS DVLP OVER SE NM AND NRN FA AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A GOOD SIGN OF HIGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
BOUNDARY LAYER NOT TAPPED YET...AS LATEST ADAP AND SOUNDING
MODIFICATION SHOW A 4-5C CAP STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF FA...THANKS
TO MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HOLDING DOWN TEMPS. UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER HIER
TERRAIN OF DAVIS MOUNTAINS ATTM. AS NOTED IN SWOMCD...THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR IF THEY TAP INTO VERY UNSTABLE BLYR AIR TO EAST.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY N OF FA...SO EXPECT
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION CONFINED TO VCNTY AND JUST E OF MTNS (SEE
SWODY1). WILL SHOTGUN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THESE AREAS FOR THIS EVE...
AND EXPECT PRECIP TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
INSOLATION.

AFTER DARK...EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF
EASTERN ZONES AS DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS MORE MOISTURE INTO
AREA. DEEPENING LEE TROUGH NEAR TX/NM BORDER SHOULD ENSURE CONTINUED
MOIST SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW EAST OF MOUNTAINS.

BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER W-CENT USA TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT WED AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS E ACROSS NRN PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING TO
CONTINUE ALONG TX/NM BORDER BENEATH THIS ZONAL FLOW...RESULTING IN
IMPRESSIVE THICKNESS IN WRN ZONES INVOF SFC TROUGH AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AS SFC WINDS BECOME W-SW BEHIND LEE TROUGH. AS IS THE CASE
TODAY...EXPECT SLIGHT POPS WED EVENING WITH ALMOST ZERO POPS DURING
DAY. COORDINATED WITH LBB.

MAF  64/88  1/-
CNM  60/92  2/-
MRF  51/87  2/-
P07b  67/90  -/-

TJT