Severe Thunderstorm Warning 364, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
158 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 1997

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL ESTABLISHED MOIST SE FLOW ACROSS W
TX/SE NM. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO A STEADY 15KT AS PRESSURES
CONTINUE TO FALL TO THE W IN ADVANCE OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS UPPER LOW IN UTAH WITH POTENT VORT MAX
STILL DIGGING SE ACROSS SRN AZ AS 30A SHOWED 135KT JET MAX DIVING S
INTO BASE OF TROF. MODELS STILL NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING OF SYSTEM WITH THE NGM BEING THE FASTER WITH ETA STILL
HINTING AT TRYING TO CLOSE SYSTEM OFF. WILL OPT TO GO IN BETWEEN
THE 2 BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE FAR WRN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THRU ERN AREAS BEFORE 18Z. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT THE LIKELYHOOD OF
TSTMS TO INCREASE. WON'T GO OVER BOARD ON POPS HOWEVER AS QVEC AND
STATIC STABILITY COINSIDE FURTHER N. STILL WITH ABUNDANT MSTR IN
PLACE AND PVA SPREADING E (PER GRIDDS) ACROSS THE CWA WE SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST SCT TSTMS. WINDY CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF FRONT LOOK GOOD
WITH TIGHT GRADIENT FROM SURFACE TO 7H PROGGED. COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY MORNING AS 85H TEMPS DROP TO
BETWEEN 4 AND 10 DEGREES C. MORNING TEMPS DIFFICULT TO SAY THE LEAST
AND WILL OPT GO CLOSE TO GOING FCST. OTHERWISE A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR GDP WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT (WIND IS JUST STARTING
TO GO W). COOL WX TO HOLD IN PLACE THRU MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. COORD WITH LBB.

BMAF 59/69 60/20
CNM 55/70 60/0
MRF 50/65 20/0
P07 63/76 60/20

GPM/JLF