Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
201 PM CDT WED APR 16 1997

VERY DIFFICULT TO PLACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT BEST GUESS WOULD BE
BETWEEN KHOB AND KMAF WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KMAF
TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.  COOLER TEMPERATURES LAGGING ABOUT 2 TO 3
HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  KMAF 88D REFLECTIVITY SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
ATTM.  LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING BAHA CUTOFF LOW REMAINING
RELATIVELY STATIONARY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT NEXT 36 HOURS WITH NGM AND AVN BEING A
LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE IN MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER BAHA PENINSULA
EASTWARD...HENCE HIGHER POPS ON THURSDAY.  OUTSIDE SLIGHT
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OVER MOUNTAINS...BELIEVE MODELS MAY
BE A LITTLE TOO FAST ON APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS A LESSER CHANCE OF POPS GIVEN MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW ISOLATED CELLS OVER THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS EAST OF MOUNTAINS
WITH UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF WIND.  CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND PROGS
POINT TO A BRIEF SHOWING MAINLY OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES APPROACH 70 TO 80 PERCENT.

FOR TONIGHT/S LOWS WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE COOLER AVN GIVEN
CURRENT TEMPERATURES OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.  WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
NGM AND AVN FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AS EACH MODEL SEEMS TO BE AT EXTREMES.

MAF  45/72  1-
CNM  45/75  --
MRF  42/68  21
P07  48/74  1-

EARLE