Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
255 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 1997

SHWRS HAVE DVLPD DURG THE PAST HR NR THE TX MTNS WITH MSTLY 20-30 DBZ
ECHOES OCCURRING ATTM ACR REEVES/PECOS COS. TOPS REMAIN BLO 30K FT
WITH MOVMT 240/30KT. 19Z SFC ANLYS/ADAP INDCS SWLY FLOW ACR FA WITH
DWPNTS LWR-MID 50S NRN AREAS AND LWR 60S S AND NO DISCERNABLE BNDRYS.
UPR LVL LOW CNTRD OVR SRN NV/EXTRM NWRN AZ WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT
WITH THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LOW. BELIEVE CNVTN ATTM RESULT OF
INCRG MID LVL WNDS AS SWRN U.S. LOW STARTING TO EJECT EWD. SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACR ENTIRE FA TNGT. WOULD FAVOR WRN AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING THOUGH WITH BETTER CHCS ACR CNTRL/ERN SECTIONS LATER AS ACTVTY
MOVS INTO BETTER LOW LVL MSTR. PROGS INDC LOW LVL FLOW E OF MTNS TO
BACK SMWHT THIS EVE THUS LOW CLDS POSSIBLE MAINLY E OF ERN NM/TX BDR
AFT MIDN. PER COORD WITH LBB WILL INCL ERN TIER OF COS (BORDEN-REAGAN)
WITH SVR MENTION WHERE BETTER CAPES/LOW LVL FLOW PROGD. AS UPR LOW
ACCELERATES EWD MON...UPWARD FORCING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ESPECIALLY
OVR NRN/ERN SECTIONS. SFC LOW FCST OVR NWRN TX MON AFTN WITH DRYLN
NR AMA-LBB-MAF LINE PER SWODY2. UPSHOT IS THAT SVR POTENTIAL MORE
FAVORABLE MON AFTN ACR ERN PERMIAN BASIN AS MID LVL COOLG WITH THE
APCHG TROF AND STG DAYTIME HEATING CREATE A VERY UNSTBL AMS AS LI/S
FCST BETWEEN MINUS 8-10 AND CAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG. POPS WILL REFLECT
BETTER CHCS E...AND ACTVTY LINGERING ERN SECTIONS MON NGT.

BF

MAF   65/91   40/30
CNM   61/91   40/20
MRF   56/84   30/20
P07   67/92   60/40