Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
218 PM CDT (118 PM MDT) SAT JUN 14 1997

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
BLANCA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE TRANS PECOS REGION
OF WEST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO EDDY COUNTY OF NEW MEXICO.  CONVECTION
IS ALSO BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFTED INDICIES OF -10...CAPE VALUES UP TO 5000 J/KG
AND HIGH DEW POINTS...SJT AND ABI DEW POINTS HAS RISEN TO 74F WITH A
HEAT INDEX OVER 100F AT 19Z.

DUE TO CURRENT HIGH AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIME SIZED HAIL HAS RECENTLY
BEEN REPORTED NEAR CNM.  THE FORECAST CONCERN WILL THEN QUICKLY SHIFT
TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING OVERNIGHT AS THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY EVOLVES INTO A MCS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER 2
INCHES UPSTREAM OVER OLD MEXICO...DRT SOUNDING AT 12Z INDICATED
PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES...AND KMAF RADAR WIND PROFILES
INDICATE TROPICAL SOUTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING TO 500MB.  MODELS ALSO
SHOW A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ENHANCED LIFT RESULTING IN SOME AREAS OF TWO
INCH RAINS WITH ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY...EXCEEDING CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THRESHOLDS.

FOR SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEVADA WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NEW MEXICO...IMPROVING VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WHICH MAY ENHANCE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MAF  70/90   70/30
CNM  70/93   60/10
MRF  63/86   50/20
P07  78/92   60/20

FAGEN/BRITE/EARLE

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-150500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1056 AM CDT (956 AM MDT) SAT JUN 14 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

SYNOPSIS:
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR
THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL REACH
SEVERE LIMITS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.  DUE TO INCREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT.
FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB.

RRF/EGB