Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
309 PM CDT WED JUN 11 1997

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DEVELOPMENT IN SE NM ATTM.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROF EXTENDING FROM WESTERN OK
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR KHOB. THIS TROF...WHICH SHOWS ON LATEST KMAF
WSR-88D DATA...COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TRW DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...
LATEST WSR-88D DATA INDICATES ANOTHER BOUNDARY (POSSIBLE DRYLINE
WITH KINK DEWPOINT AT 52 AND KMAF AT 61) EXTENDS ALONG A
KHOB-KERMIT-KFST LINE. WITH LI VALUES IN THE -8 TO -10 RANGE...ANY
TRWS WHICH FORM TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND COULD BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER...A QUICK LOOK AT THE JAYTON AND
WHITE SANDS PROFILERS INDICATE MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW TOWARD THE
EAST. THUS...FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN.

MODELS PUSH TROF THROUGH FA BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE TROF WILL BE THE
CHALLENGE FOR POPS FOR THE SECOND AND POSSIBLY THE THIRD PERIODS. IF
ETA AND NGM VERIFY...TROF COULD BE NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS OUR EASTERN FA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POPS MAY BE
BEST FOR THESE ZONES DURING SECOND PERIOD. ALSO...EXPECT 700 MB
TEMPS TO WARM TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT SURE THIS CAP WILL
COMPLETELY SUPPRESS ALL ACTIVITY IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY
GIVEN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND OROGRAPHICS.
THEREFORE... RECOMMEND INCLUDING SOME POPS FOR THIS AREA FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE NUMBERS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. HOWEVER...WITH TROF PUSHING THROUGH TOMORROW...BELIEVE KCNM
NUMBERS TOO LOW.

THANKS TO KLBB FOR COORDINATION!

MAF 65/96 20/10
CNM 64/99 2 0/--
MRF 60/90 20/20
P07 70/92 10/10

HUBER/FRANCIS

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-120500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1136 AM CDT (1036 AM MDT) WED JUN 11 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

SYNOPSIS:  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING
SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. VERY HEAVY RAINS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICAN AND WEST TEXAS MOUNTAINS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY PRODUCING SOME FLASH FLOODING.

THE SPOTTER NETWORK MAY REQUIRE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT. FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB.

BOYD/HUBER

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-120500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1156 AM CDT (1056 AM MDT) WED JUN 11 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

SYNOPSIS:  RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING
SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. VERY HEAVY RAINS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICAN AND WEST TEXAS MOUNTAINS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY PRODUCE SOME FLASH FLOODING.

THE SPOTTER NETWORK MAY REQUIRE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FOR THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSSJT. FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS OUTLOOK SEE PRODUCT LBBSPSLBB.

BOYD/HUBER