Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
246 PM CDT THU APR 10 1997

ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE CWA WITH ADAP
INDICATING LI'S TO MINUS 6 WITH VERY LITTLE CAP IN A PLACE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS WEST TEXAS SUGGEST CAPES TO 2000-2500 J/KG PER
COORD WITH SPC. MEANWHILE DRYLINE IS CLOSE TO MTNS ATTM...HOWEVER
WINDS AT GDP AND DWPTS SUGGEST DRYLINE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE E AND
STILL EXPECT IT MOVE CLOSE TO MIDLAND BY EARLY EVENING. WARMEST
TEMPS ATTM ARE IN WINKLER COUNTY SUPPORTING VERTICALLY ENHANCED CU
FIELD AND BELIEVE IT IS JUST A SHORT MATTER OF TIME BEFORE TSTMS
BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. LOW CLOUDS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS ERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CONVECTION IS LESS LIKELY ATTM AND
SPC HAS RECENTLY ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH. CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE
INCREASING FURTHER E HOWEVER AS CLOUDS ERODE ON WRN EDGE WITH
DRYLINE AND UPPER TROF AXIS APPROACHING. SCATTERED MENTION OF SEVERE
STILL WARRANTED TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT WITH
MID-LEVEL DRYING WORKING INTO THE RGN AND AS ETA IS STILL
FORECASTING CAPES TO 1500 J/KG BY 06Z. THEREAFTER MID-LEVEL TROF
AXIS BEGINS TO SWING THRU SHIFTING WINDS TO THE W. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE TX PANHANDLE TO DROP S INTO THE PB
BY TMRW AFTERNOON. ETA IS INDICATING MUCH COOLER TEMPS WITH PASSAGE
OF THE MID-LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCD PAC COLD FRONT. TEMPS DIFFICULT DO
TO TIMING OF FROPA AND WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW FWC AND ABOVE ETA
AS SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE WARMING OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF FRONT IN TX
PANHANDLE. COORD WITH LBB AND SPC.

MAF 48/63 40/10
CNM 43/70 10/0
MRF 39/66 10/0
P07 53/80 40/10

MURDOCH/BRITE

NMZ027>029-TXZ045>048-050>052-057>063-067>070-074-075-079>082-110500-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
1113 AM CDT (1013 AM MDT) THU APR 10 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS:

ANDREWS   CULBERSON  GLASSCOCK   MARTIN    REAGAN   UPTON
BORDEN    DAWSON     HOWARD      MIDLAND   REEVES   WARD
BREWSTER  ECTOR      JEFF DAVIS  PECOS     SCURRY   WINKLER
CRANE     GAINES     LOVING      PRESIDIO  TERRELL

AND IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO:

EDDY      LEA

SYNOPSIS:
A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM CROSSROADS NEW
MEXICO...TO ODESSA...TO FORT STOCKTON...TO SANDERSON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
BE IN PLACE. UPWARD MOTIONS ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM. FORECAST LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SUPER CELLS. AT THIS TIME THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE
FROM LARGE HAIL...REMEMBER HOWEVER THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN
PRODUCE TORNADOES. RESIDENTS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD KEEP A
CLOSE WATCH ON THE WEATHER AND PREPARE NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
DANGEROUS WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

MURDOCH/YOUNG