Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
352 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 1997

THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OUT IN WARM SURFACE AIR OF NORTHERN MEXICO.
MODERATE SWLY FLOW SHOULD CARRY STORMS ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO SW
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  MODELS SHOWING LIFT TO COME ACROSS REST OF
AREA LATE TONIGHT.  THIS LIFT MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO NEAR PECOS RIVER.
HAVING A HARDER TIME WITH MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS FARTHER EAST.

WITH STORMS MOVING INTO SOME AREAS LATE...MAY BE WORTH MENTIONING A
"FAIR" OR "P/C" FOR THE EVENING HOURS...THEN THE POPS LATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE A HUGE PLAYER OTHER THAN
LIMITING NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ACTIVITY.  FOCUS STILL SEEMS TO BE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...UPPER SUPPORT...AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED.  FOR WED EVENING...ADVECT STORMS TO
NORTHEAST. MAY SEE MUCH THE SAME STORY AS TODAY WITH MOST STORMS
DEVELOPING IN UPSLOPE AREAS IN MEXICO.

MAF  56 80  20 20
CNM  54 82  40 20
MRF  52 81  50 20
P07  57 82  30 20

MATHEWS