Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
320 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 1997

SFC TROF EXTENDS FROM W P28-S DHT-LVS WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW ACR FA.
KMAF WSR-88D INDICATING TSTMS NEAR DAVIS MTNS VCNTY MRF AND FT.
DAVIS AND NEAR SACRAMENTO NM MTNS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOV EWD INTO
UNSTBL AMS WHERE LI/S MINUS 4-6 LI/S EXIST AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ABV
H5. BELIEVE ACTVTY WILL BE CONFINED NXT FEW HRS W OF PECOS RIVER.
MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN RAIN WILL BE FALLING INTO VERY
DRY LYR JUST ABV SFC. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXCEPTION OF
INITIALIZATION PROBLEM WITH LOW LAT SYS VCNTY BAJA. LTL UPWARD
FORCING INDICATED THIS EVE/TNGT THUS BELIEVE CNVTN WILL DECREASE
AFT SUNSET. NEXT CONCERN TNGT WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLDS
ERN CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT LOW CLDS AT MAF TOWARD SUNRISE
AS NGM BNDRY LYR PROG KEEPS BETTER MSTR E OF AREA. WITH SLY/SELY
FLOW ACR ERN AREAS...MAY BE SOME LOW CLDS TWD MRNG PARTICULARLY
TERRELL CO. ANY LOW CLDS THAT DVLP WILL QUICKLY BE SHUNTED EWD
AS SFC TROF MOVS THRU DURG MRNG. MORE IMPORTANT FCST CONCERN IS
REGARDING CDFNT XPCD TO PUSH INTO NRN SECTIONS LATE MRNG...MAF
MID AFTN...AND TO SRN/WRN SECTIONS MON NGT. SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DVLP
ALONG FNTL BNDRY AS MODELS INDICATE DECENT UVV/S AND CONVERGENCE. LI/S
OF MINUS 4-6 PROGGED WITH CAPES APCHG 1500 J/KG. STRATIFORM-TYPE PCPN
EVENT DVLPG LATE MON NGT-TUE AS FNTL BNDRY REMAINS ACR SWRN SECTIONS
(I.E. MTNS) AND BAJA SYS APCHS AREA. WETTER/UNSETBTLED PERIOD AHEAD.

BF

MAF   61/81   13
CNM   60/84   22
MRF   53/81   22
P07   65/92   13