Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 1997

FCST TRENDS GOING SIMILAR TO EARLIER GUESSES. LATEST VIS STLT IMAGES
SHOW A CLEARING TREND OVER MOST THE CWA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE BNDD
BY A LINE FROM CANDELARIA...TO HOBBS...TO WEST OF LBB. SCT CU HAVE
DVLPD LOCALLY WITH TEMPS AS OF 1900Z READING 91/65. VIS STLT ALSO
SHOWS A LOW CENTER OF CIRCULATION NE OF ELP...MOVING NE IN THE WEAK
TROPICAL PLUME EXTDG FROM NWRN OLDE MEXICO TO MISSOURI. AT THE SFC
...18Z ANALYSIS HAS THE FNTL BNDRY THAT WAS OVER NWRN THIRD OF THE
CWA HAS PRETTY MUCH WASHED OUT WITH S-SW WINDS PREVAILING. HOWEVER
...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS NOTED SOUTH OF GDP...WITH A FEW WEAK TROFS
EXTENDING SW-NE FROM THE WRN BIG BEND...TO EXTM SE NM...TO WEST OF
LBB. SFC DEWPOINTS (EXCEPT FOR GDP) AS OF 18Z ALL ABOVE 60F...RATHER
MOIST FOR THIS PART OF THE NATION.

MODELS VIA AFOS START OUT FINE. THE BEST DISERNABLE FEATURE ON THE
LARGE SCALE IS A RETURN TO A RIDGE DESERT SW -- TROF EAST COAST THRU
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE ETA/AVN AGREEING MORE RH FIELD WISE
WITH ONE ANOTHER...WITH THE NGM SHOWING HIER AMOUNTS IN THIS REGARD.
HOWEVER...THE NGM WAS THE ONLY ONE AVAILABLE IN FULL FOR PCGRIDDS
(AND THE ETA THROUGH 24 HOURS) BOTH MAINTAINS A BEST CHANCE OF PCPN
FOR THE WRN AND NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NGM FCSTD LIS IN THE -5 RANGE
PRETTY CLOSE TO 18/1200Z MODIFIED SOUNDINGS OVER SE NM AND CULBERSON
CNTY. HIER POPS OVER SE NM IN CURRENT FCST LOOK GOOD. POPS COULD BE
A NUMBER OR TWO HIER FOR W/TX FROM MENTONE TO THE BIG BEND (SEE
NEWEST 6HR NCEP QPF). THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS THAT HAVE RE-FIRED
AND HI PWS MAY MAKE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY TEMPS AND POPS A BLEND OF NGM GUESS AND PERSISTANCE.

MAF  72/96  30/20
CNM  70/94  40/20
MRF  59/85  30/20
P07  73/94  10/10

BB/JF