Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
205 PM CDT WED JUN 18 1997

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM...PATH AND EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO FORM THIS EVENING...

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 17Z INDICATES SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS
FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM N. CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS SEEMS
TO POINT TO A POSSIBLE PATH NORTH AND EAST OF A CDR-LBF-BBW LINE. IN
FACT...THAT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PLACE TO BREAK THE ZONES. SMC AND SSW
CHARTS FROM ADAP HINT AT SFC BOUNDARY IN NEB PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLO. ALSO...SFC PARCEL LI'S ARE LOWEST IN THAT AREA. PUTTING THESE
TOGETHER GIVES AN INDICATION THAT THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG A CDR-SNY-FTC LINE.
MODIFYING THE MORNING LBF SOUNDING TO REFLECT TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
CHANGES PRODUCES A LAYER AVERAGE LI OF -4 WITH CAPE OF NEAR 1500. SFC
PARCEL METHODS PRODUCE MUCH HIGHER CAPE (3000 PLUS) AND LI OF -7 WITH
60 DEGREE DEWPOINT AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE OF 90. NGM SFC LI'S SHOW
MOST UNSTABLE ALONG S. DAK/NEB LINE...SO SOUTHERN END OF CONVECTIVE
LINE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
SO...THE CDR-LBF-BBW DEMARCATION LOOKS PRETTY ACCURATE FOR TONIGHT'S
ACTIVITY.

IN OUTER PERIODS...ETA HAS FRONT IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY
EVENING WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AS WITH TODAY...THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE
WILL PROBABLY HAVE FEWER THUNDERSTORMS.
THICKNESS PROG SHOWS LITTLE OR NO TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NEBRASKA THURSDAY...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER (LESS THAN 5 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT) ALONG THE S. DAK/NEB LINE.

RECOMMENDED FORECAST

NEZ005-023>025-035>038-190915-
SHERIDAN-CHERRY-GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-LOGAN-CUSTER-
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF VALENTINE...MULLEN...BROKEN BOW
400 PM CDT WED JUN 18 1997

.TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WIND 10
TO 20 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
.THURSDAY...A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY.  HIGH 85 TO 90.  WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST 10
TO 20 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. PARTLY
CLOUDY.  LOW 55 TO 60.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  HIGH IN THE MID 80S.

NEZ006>010-026>029-038-180915-
KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-CUSTER-
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF AINSWORTH...O NEILL...BURWELL...BROKEN BOW
400 PM CDT WED JUN 18 1997

.TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW IN THE MID 50S.  SOUTH WIND 10
TO 20 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
.THURSDAY...A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY.  HIGH 85 TO 90.  WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO
20 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  PARTLY
CLOUDY.  LOW AROUND 60.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  HIGH IN THE MID 80S.

NEZ004-022-035>037-056>059-069>071-180915-
GARDEN-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF OGALLALA...NORTH PLATTE...IMPERIAL
400 PM CDT WED JUN 18 1997

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW
IN THE MID 50S.  SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
.THURSDAY...A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY.  HIGH AROUND 90.  WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST 10
TO 20 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOW 55 TO 60.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S.

VTN BB 055/088 057/086 49542
ANW BB 056/087 058/085 49542
ONL BB 057/086 058/084 49542
BBW BB 055/087 059/085 49542
LBF B B 055/089 056/087 49333
OGA BB 055/089 056/087 49333
IML BB 057/090 057/089 49333

SPRINGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  NORTH PLATTE NE
720 PM CDT WED JUN 18 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0525 PM    5 MILES SOUTH SPARK       NE   1.50 INCH HAIL
06/18/97   CHERRY

0600 PM    6 NORTHWEST NORDEN        NE   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/18/97   KEYA PAHA

SLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  NORTH PLATTE NE
720 PM CDT WED JUN 18 1997

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

052n5 PM    5 MILES SOUTH SPARK       NE   1.50 INCH HAIL
06/18/97   CHERRY

0600 PM    6 NORTHWEST NORDEN        NE   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/18/97   KEYA PAHA

SLM

NEZ004-022-056-190245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
840 PM CDT (740 PM MDT) WED JUN 18 1997

...THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
SHERIDAN...GARDEN AND DEUEL COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE FOR THIS EVENING.

MICHELS

NEZ005-006-023-035-057-058-069-190325-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
918 PM CDT (818 PM MDT) WED JUN 18 1997

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT (900
PM MDT) HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
(900 PM MDT) FOR KEYA
PAHA...CHERRY....GRANT...ARTHUR...KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

THE TOWNS AFFECTED BY THIS CANCELLATION ARE VALENTINE...OGALLALA
AND IMPERIAL.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WELL EAST OF THIS AREA AND NO SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS FORESEEN THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT EAST OF THIS
AREA.

MICHELS