Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
225 PM CDT MON SEP 8 1997

TSRA CHANCES THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...THEN CLOUDS/TEMPS

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT FROM LOW IN WRN MN SWWD TO YKN TO NEAR
BFF. ALSO A WEAK N TO S SFC TROF BETWEEN OGA AND LBF WHICH EXTENDS INTO
WRN KS. TSRA DEVELOPING ALREADY IN ERN SD ALONG FRONT AND ALSO IN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN TSRA FORECASTING
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE SOME VIRGA FROM ACC IN WC NEBRASKA IN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 312-315 K. ADAP SAC CHART SHOWING GOOD PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT IN WRN SD SO WILL EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE
PLUNGING SWD.  ...QUICK LOOK OUTSIDE SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT
...PROBABLY JUST S OF VTN...

MODELS SIMILAR WITH THE FIRST 24 HR PERIOD AT LEAST...IN BRINGING
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NE NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUE.
MODELS DIFFER SOME IN THIER PLACEMENT OF BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BY
TONIGHT...WITH THE ETA SEEMING A BIT OVERDONE...BUT GENERALLY IN THE
RIGHT AREA BASED ON MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING INDICATED IN GRIDDED DATA AS WELL WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH ETA
SHOWING GOOD MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SVR WILL BE. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
LIES E OF A LINE FROM ANW TO MCK...BUT YET BEST NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE
LOCATED IN AN AREA FROM LBF TO VTN. AS UPPER LEVELS COOL WOULD EXPECT
SOME HAIL POSSIBLE...BUT IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG FRONT
WITH GOOD MID LEVEL JET COMING INTO AREA...WOULD EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND AS WELL. FRONT SHOULD BE THRU CWA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROVIDING SOME LIFT FOR SHRA
OVERNIGHT.

CHALLENGE THEN BECOMES TEMPS IN OUTER PERIODS. EXPECTED TO SEE A DECK
OF LOW SC BEHIND THE FRONT INTO ND BY NOW...BUT NOTHING AS OF YET. WILL
COUNT ON CLOUDINESS THRU THE NIGHT MOST AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER
THRU THE MORNING MOST AREAS AS WELL...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN NORTHERN
ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AM A BIT PESSIMISTIC ABOUT CLEARING IN THE SW
TUESDAY BASED ON UPSLOPE FLOW SO WILL STICK WITH MC THERE. GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL GENERALLY STICK AOB FAN
MAXES...ESPECIALLY SINCE NGM LIKES TO WARM THINGS UP TOO FAST. POPS
WILL BE BOOSTED A TAD MOST AREAS TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS MAINLY SUNNY.

CCF
LBF EB 053/073 046/078 049 6942-
OGA EB 054/071 047/079 050 6942-b
IML EB 054/072 048/079 050 6942-
VTN BE 051/074 045/080 049 6931-
ONL BE 054/074 048/080 052 6931-

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NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-091200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1100 AM CDT (1000 AM MDT) MON SEP 8 1997

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING NEBRASKA COUNTIES...

ARTHUR     BLAINE     BOYD       BROWN      CHASE      CHERRY
CUSTER     DEUEL      FRONTIER   GARDEN     GARFIELD   GRANT
HAYES      HOLT       HOOKER     KEITH      KEYA PAHA  LINCOLN
LOGAN      LOUP       MCPHERSON  PERKINS    ROCK       SHERIDAN
THOMAS     WHEELER

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WEST OF A LINE FROM CHAPPELL TO NORTH PLATTE TO
HAYES CENTER. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT ONLY
THOSE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. DURING THE DAY...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE FRONT MEETS THIS UNSTABLE
AIR...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
LIKELY RESIDING OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE
STABLE AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

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