Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
245 PM EST TUE MAR 18 1997

CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN KY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING.

KJKL 88D SHOWS SECOND BATCH OF HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF KY AND E OF I-75 ADVANCING E INTO THE NW CWA WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 530 PM EST. CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS SW
KY CLOSER TO STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MORE MOIST AIR.
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUES FEEDING NE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FROM MEXICO AND THE PACIFIC OCEAN. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 50S EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTH BY MIDDLESBORO IN THE LOWER 60S WHERE
RAINFALL RATHER LIMITED SO FAR TODAY NEAR TN/VA BORDERS.

SURFACE LOW IN SE MO WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING ENE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
KY. THIS FRONT TO SINK SLOWLY S ACROSS KY TONIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS
INTO TN. ANOTHER HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN LIKELY WITH LOCAL 2 INCH
AMOUNTS SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES NEAR TN BORDER. WOULD CONFINE EVENING
THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND VALLEY ZONE NEAR
LOZ/SME/MIDDLESBORO WHERE UVM/S ARE STRONGEST.

STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS TO DIVE SE
TOWARD LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED WHILE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH
SYSTEMS GRAZE ERN KY WITH SOME PVA ENERGY WED KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SCATTTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AS MEAN RH DROP GRADUALLY TO 50% FROM THE W.

THINKING MILDER LOWS TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND DEVELOPING CAA N WINDS ONLY UNDER 10 KNOTS. MID 40S
AVERAGE FOR E KY BUT TO CONTRAST FROM NEAR 40 IN THE FAR N BY LEX/I-64
TO NEAR 50 AT MIDDLESBORO.

JKL  44/49  +4
LOZ  47/52  +4

HUETTL