Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EST WED MAR 5 1997

FLASH FLOOD WATCH NEEDED FOR EASTERN KY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

MODELS NEARLY SIMILAR IN PROGESSING NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE FROM CO/KS
QUICKLY EAST THROUGH KY INTO THIS EVENING. THE WETTER ETA MODEL IS
STILL FAVORED WHICH ACCUMULATES AROUND THREE QUARTER INCHES /0.75/
VERSUS NGM /0.33/ INCH AT JKL. MUCH OF KY IN FAVORABLE LIFT REGIME OF
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 130-150 KT SW JET STREAMING FROM TX TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

STRONG PUNCH OF PVA BY 00Z ALONG WITH UVM BY 18Z AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PATTERN. MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE GULF COAST STATES WITH 50+
DEWPOINTS STREAMING N INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ENTERING FAR NW KY. ALSO HAVE LOW PRESSURE OVER NE TX DEEPENS AND
RACES NE TO NEAR CVG BY 18Z AND PIT BY 00Z.

AT 8Z PATCHY DENSE FOG SETTING UP IN PROTECTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT SSE TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM ABOUT
40 VALLEYS TO AROUND 50 HILLTOPS. LATEST MICROSWIS SHOTS AFTER THE
ECLIPSE SHOW MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING SE INTO CENTRAL KY SO THESE TO
HOLD SE KY TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES REST
OF NIGHT AS DANVILLE ROSE 3 DEGREES IN 1 HOUR.

SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AROUND DAYBREAK WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING MIDDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS A RISK THIS AFTERNOON...LDS ALREADY
SHOWING RETURNS INTO W TN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO 1-2 INCHES IN A COUPLE HOURS PER NCEP HENCE WARRANTING
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS STILL LIKELY
THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z WHEN COLD FRONT PASSES SE. DYNAMICS
QUICKLY DEPART AFTER MIDNIGHT ENDING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDY SKIES
TREND MOSTLY CLOUDY TOWARD DAYBREAK THU AS DRYER AIR...MEAN RH OF 25-
30%  WORKS IN FROM THE WEST BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ALONG WITH
UPSLOPE WNW WINDS.

BELIEVE SE KY TO WARM TO FAN HIGHS OF 60-65 WITH SW WAA WINDS PICKING
UP TO 10-15 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT TO VARY FROM THE LOWER 30S NW NEAR LEX
TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE VA BORDER.

WORKING WITH FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PIKE COUNTY THROUGH 1130 AM EST.
A MASSIVE 25 FOOT MUDSLIDE ONTO MARROWBONE AND BAD FORK CREEKS MAKING
15 TO 20 FAMILIES ISOLATED SINCE LATE TUE EVENING. PIKE COUNTY ROAD
CREW TO RETURN TO THE SCENE AT DAWN TO WORK AT CLEARING AWAY MUDSLIDE.
WYMT NEWS TEAM FROM HAZARD ALSO ARRIVING AT THE SCENE EARLY THIS
MORNING.

JKL \ 62/33/48  +8-
LOZ  63/35/48  +7-

HUETTL