Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
225 AM EST MON MAR 3 1997

CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR ALL OF EASTERN KY.

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NE MS AT 6Z WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NE TO FAR SE KY. MIDDLESBORO STEADY AROUND 57 WITH LIGHT ESE
WINDS WHILE REST OF SE KY KY IN THE LOW-MID 40S WITH NE FLOW 5 TO 15
MPH CIRCULATING AROUND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON.
INTENSE...BUT WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ALONG THE AR/MS BORDER. WATER VAPOR SHOWS TROPICAL CONECTION AS
MOISTURE FROM THE YUKATAN WORKING N ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST
STATES INTO TN/KY.

KJKL SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LIFTING QUICKLY NNE TOWARD THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. SO FAR TONIGHT BETWEEN A TENTH AND QUARTER INCH FELL
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 80 WITH AROUND THREE QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS
IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLY OVER PULASKI AND WAYNE COUNTIES. SEVERAL
LIGHTNING RETURNS FURTHER SW IN MID TN AND WEST KY.

MODELS TAKE SURFACE LOW NE TO KY/WV BORDER BY 00Z WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RACES TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. AMAZING AMOUNT OF
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION (17.5 UNITS) BULLSEYE BRIEFLY OVER EASTERN KY
AT 12Z WHILE BEST PVA CROSSES NE BETWEEN 10-18Z. ETA/NGM TALLY UP
ANOTHER 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY ACROSS SE KY MAINLY THIS MORNING
AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2-3 INCHES PER NCEP DISCUSSION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM TN S TO THE GULF COAST AND
THIS MOISTURE TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. CONTINUE
DOWNPLAYING RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO END BEFORE THE DAY IS
OUT ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

ETA FOCUSED MOST OF ITS RAINFALL IN EASTERN KY WHILE NGM FURTHER W IN
CENTRAL KY. EITHER WAY...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 INCH OR MORE LIKELY
NEXT 12 HOURS EVEN NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE ITS NOT NEEDED. CONVECTION
A RISK TOO ESPECIALLY CUMBERLAND VALLEY AS LIFTED INDEXES LOWER TO -1
BY 18Z. GROUNDS SUPER SATURATED ESPECIALLY NW OF LOZ/JKL WHERE NEAR A
RECORD SETTING 3-7 INCHES FELL SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY TODAY DEPENDING OF HOW FAR NW WARM FRONT CAN
MAKE IT...FEEL IT SHOULD NEAR JKL BY TRACK OF LOW. FOLLOWING CLOSELY
TO GUIDANCE AS FWC/FAN NEARLY SIMILAR. AREAS NW OF JKL TO REACH AROUND
50 DEGRES WHILE AREAS SE OF JKL TO THE VA BORDER IN WARM SECTOR SEE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

JKL  54/40/63  +21
LOZ  58/41/64  +21

HUETTL