Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Wilmington, OH

FORECAST COORDINATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
300 PM EST FRI MAR 28 1997

MODEL COMPARISON:
MODELS VERY SIMILAR WITH TIMG AND TEMP FEATURES THIS WKEND.  STG VORT
MAX IN NE KS MOVG SE BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN E SOON.  ALL MODELS PROG
VORT MAX TO CVG AREA BY 12Z SAT TO BE FOLLOWED BY QUICKLY RISG HEIGHTS
AND NVA BY SAT AFTN.  LOOKS REASONABLE THAT THIS SYSTEM WL MOVE ALONG
QUICKLY WITH KICKER SYSTEM ON ITS HEELS TO COME THRU LTR SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY.  THIS 2ND SYSTEM HAS IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
FAIRLY LIMITED SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS SO CLOSE TO THE DRIER BACKSIDE OF
THE FIRST.  THE 48 HR 850 MB TEMP FCSTS WERE VRY SIMILAR ALTHOUGH THE
AVN IS SLOWR WITH SYSTEMS AND CONSEQUENTLY COLDER AIR IS SLOWER BUT BY
60 HRS THE -5 ISOTHERM IS S OF DAY AND CMH FOR A COOL EASTER SUNDAY.

SVR WX:  18Z ILN SOUNDG DATA HOT OFF THE PRESS.  LI AND SHOWALTER
INDICIES AT -1.  CAPE AT 484 J/KG.  SWEAT INDEX OF 393 AND HELICITY NR
157 M/S.  MAX PARCEL LVL OF 32500 FT AND WET-BULB ZERO AT 7100 FT.  TO
SUMMARIZE...AIRMASS BCMG MORE UNSTABLE (MODIFIED CAPE JUST ABV 1000
WHEN HIER DWPTS (NR 60) ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT)...AND WIND SHEAR INCRG
WHILE HAIL POTENTIAL HIGH WITH TSRA. AT THIS PT...NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH
WIND SHEAR NOW...BUT IT SHOULD GET BETTER AS NOSE OF LOW LVL JET
APPROACHES EARLY THIS EVENG.  HOURLY MESO CHARTS INDICATE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TO DVLP SOON WL BE ACROSS W KY...S IL INTO FAR W IN.
WE HAVE LOW CLDS OVR SRN AND CNTL FA ATTM AS A NEGATIVE...BUT AS
STORMS GET GOING TO OUR W...OUR DWPTS WL BE HI ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
CONVECTION. MAIN TIME FRAME FOR SVR WX WOULD BE 00Z-06Z ASSUMG SVR
THREAT IS A LITTLE AHEAD OF CD FNT.  FNT TO COME THRU FM W-E 06Z-09Z.

FCST:
UNQUALIFIED POPS TNGT WITH SVR POSS (BEFORE 12AM FOR CVG AREA).  FROPA
AND GOOD PVA LTR TNGT SHOULD KEEP SHRA AROUND AND IT WL BE WINDY.  FOR
SATURDAY...UPPER HTS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO XPCT CHC OF
MORNG RA THEN JUST MCLDY AND WINDY.  FOR SAT NGT...THE 2ND SYSTEM MOVES
IN AFT 12AM SO BECMG CLDY WITH CHC OF SHRA.  UPPER SYSTEM STILL AROUND
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY.  EASTER WL BE COOL AND WINDY WITH A CHC
SHRA (HIER POPS N) AND MCLDY.  LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR SUNDAY'S
SYSTEM.

FWC AND FAN TEMPS CLOSE AND LOOK REASONABLE ALTHOUGH WL FCST A LITTLE
COOLER SUN LOW AND HI BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS. FWC POPS TOO LOW SAT NGT
AND SUN WHILE FAN BECOMES TOO HIGH BY SUN.

CVG  48/59/38/49  +/3/2
DAY  48/58/38/46  +/3/3
CMH  51/59/39/48  +/5/2

SANDLER

OHZ015-016-024>026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-
088-KYZ089>100-INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-290100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
310 PM EST FRI MAR 28 1997

...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER LOCATED IN NORMAN...OKLAHOMA HAS INDICATED
THAT A MODERATE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...EXTREME SOUTHWEST OHIO AND NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL
OHIO...THE MIAMI VALLEY AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

AT MID AFTERNOON...A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WAS ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH
WAS PUSHING EAST INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. THESE BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...CAUSING THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME UNSTABLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
THIS AREA OVER ILLNOIS...INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN
OHIO...INCLUDING THE DAYTON AND CINCINNATI AREAS BETWEEN 7 PM AND 9 PM
AND INTO CENTRAL OHIO...INCLUDING THE COLUMBUS METRO AREA AFTER 9 PM.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

IF YOU ARE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AREA...KEEP TRACK OF THE
LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RANDALL

KYZ089-INZ050-058-059-066-073-290500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
551 PM EST FRI MAR 28 1997

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND
   EAST-CENTRAL INDIANA AND CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...

SOME CITIES IN THE WATCH INCLUDE RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...BROOKVILLE
VERSAILLES AND CARROLLTON.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING.  AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND INDIANA.  MANY OF THE STORMS HAVE
ALREADY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AND ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE
AND EVEN TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE
TO THE WESTERN SKY AND STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

WILKINSON

OHZ042-051-053>055-060>064-070>073-077>082-088-KYZ090>100-290600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
718 PM EST FRI MAR 28 1997

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SOUTHWESTERN
   OHIO AND MUCH OF CENTRAL OHIO INCLUDING THE MIAMI VALLEY...

SOME CITIES IN THE WATCH INCLUDE CINCINNATI...DAYTON...COLUMBUS AND
PORTSMOUTH.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND INDIANA.  MANY OF THE STORMS HAVE
ALREADY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW HAVE PRODUCED TORNADOES.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AND ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE
AND EVEN TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE TO THE WESTERN SKY AND STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

WILKINSON

OHZ042-051-053>055-060>064-070>073-077>082-088-KYZ090>100-290600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
718 PM EST FRI MAR 28 1997

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SOUTHWESTERN
   OHIO AND MUCH OF CENTRAL OHIO INCLUDING THE MIAMI VALLEY AS WELL AS
   MUCH OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY...

SOME CITIES IN THE WATCH INCLUDE CINCINNATI...DAYTON...COLUMBUS AND
PORTSMOUTH.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS KENTUCKY AND INDIANA.  MANY OF THE STORMS HAVE
ALREADY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW HAVE PRODUCED TORNADOES.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AND ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE
AND EVEN TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE TO THE WESTERN SKY AND STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

WILKINSON

...CORRECTED TO ADD NORTHERN KENTUCKY IN LEAD SENTENCE...