Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Wilmington, OH

FORECAST COORDINATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
255 AM EST SAT MAR 1 1997

SHWRS AND TSTMS SLIDING ENE ALG WRMFNT WHICH XTNDS ACRS SRN IND AND THEN
ALG OHIO RIVER FM ARND CVG TO HTS ON LTST SFC ANLYS. CONVECTION TO W
AND S CONTS TO WKN AS IT MOVS INTO MORE STABLE AIR WITH NET RESULT
BEING BROAD AREA OF MDT RAIN ACRS SRN 2/3 FA WITH AN OCNL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. THUNDER A LTL MORE PREVALANT TO S OF FNT ACRS NRN KY AND FAR
SRN OH WHR 1HR PCPN TOTALS ARE 2 TO 3 TENTHS WITH 3 HR TOTALS CLOSE TO
3/4 INCH BUT NO FLOODING PRBLMS NOTED ATTM.

A FEW TSTMS CONTG TO FIRE TO SW BUT ACTVTY APPEARS TO BE DCRSG. AT ANY
RATE...SHUD CONT TO SEE REMNANTS OF THIS TRACK E ACRS FA THRU MID MRNG
HRS WITH PCPN MAKING SLOW NWRD PROGRESSION AS WRMFNT PUSHES N. MOST OF
FA SHUD BE WRM SECTORED BY AFTN WHICH SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME BRKS IN PCPN
WITH JUST SCT SHWRS PSBL MUCH OF AFTN. PCPN WL PICK BACK UP THRU LATE
AFTN INTO TNGT THO AS CDFNT SLIDES SLOWLY SE. ETA APPEARS A BIT FAST
WITH MOVMT OF FNT/MSTR FIELDS AND WL SIDE WITH SLOWER NGM/AVN. WITH FA
IN RRQ OF 160 KT H3 JET...THIS SETS UP GOOD LLVL CONV/UPR LVL DIVG
COUPLET SW TO NE ACRS CNTRL FA FM CVG TO ARND CMH THIS EVNG INTO
TNGT...SHIFTING SE LATE. PWS RISE TO 1.2 TO 1.6 RANGE BY THIS EVNG SO
WL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF HVY RAIN WITH HVYST PCPN ACRS SE 2/3 FA. GIVEN
CRNT PCPN...GRND WL BE FAIRLY SATURATED AND WL LIKELY NEED FFA ACRS
THIS AREA TNGT. PCPN WONT BE QUITE AS HVY ACRS NW PORTIONS FA BUT WITH
CRNT FLOOD SIT THERE...ANY SIG RAIN WL CAUSE PRBLMS THERE TOO. THUS FFA
LIKELY NEEDED FOR LIMA AREA TNGT ALSO.

SOME 8H MSTR CONV HANGS ON ACRS SE FA INTO SUN AFTN AS FNT SHIFTS
SLOWLY SE OF FA SO MAY SEE SOME SHWRS CONT INTO AFTN SERN 1/3 FA ON
SUN. OTHRWS PCPN SHUD TAPER OFF NW TO SE THRU MRNG HRS.

GOOD WRMG TDA WITH HI TMPS ARND RECORDS BUT TMPS FALLING OFF TNGT WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY ON SUN BEHIND FNT.

CVG 71/50/50 6+5
CMH 69/51/51 7+6
DAY 69/47/47 5+4

LOTT