Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
115 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 1997

ZFP: TRYING TO GET DONE ERLY AS EXPCT TO BE BUSY LTR. ATM IS UNSTBLE
ACRS ERN NC WITH TEMPS IN MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DWPTS IN 60S TO
LOW 70S. OUTFLOW BNDRYS APPROACHING AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SEE UVV
INCRS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENG AS SRT WV AND ASSOCIATED UPR DIFL MV
E. TSRA WL BE INCRSING IN CVRG AND INTENSTY THIS AFTN AND CONT INTO
THIS EVENING. AFTR SUNSET SVR THREAT WL DIMINISH BUT EXPECT GOOD
DEAL OF SHRA/TSRA MOST OF TNGHT AS SRT WV MVS ACRS. ALTHOUGH ETA/AVN
SOLUTION VERY SIMILAR THINK NGM MAY HAVE BETTER HNDL ON INSTAB...UVV
AND POTENTIAL QPF. AS LOW SLOWLY MVS OFFSHORE SUN MORN SHRA WILL END
FROM W TO E WITH CLDS SLOWLY ERODING...EXPCT CST AND ESPECIALLY OTR
BNKS TO BE SLOW TO CLR GIVEN HIGH LOW LVL RH AND NE FLOW. DRY LESS
HUMID WX SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH WEAK UPR RDG AND SFC HIGH OVR RGN.
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT AND CST ERLY SUN MORN.

CWF: MDLS HAVE BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF NE WINDS BEHIND LOW SUNDAY.
FEEL WORDING OF NRN WTRS STILL OK ALTHOUGH WILL PROB DECREASE WINDS
AND SEAS A BIT. SRN WTRS CONT TO BE PROB. DONT THINK FPSN7 IS
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE MAJORITY OF THE WTRS. MDLS SHOW BEST LOW LVL
SW FLOW FROM EXTREME SRN WTRS S. OMRS FROM SRN CST ARE STILL RATHER
LIGHT. PROB IS SCA WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AND HATE TO DROP IT NOW
THEN RAISE AGAIN SUN IF WE GET NE SURGE. NONE OF THE NEW GDNC IS
ADVERTISING SCA BEHIND THE LOW SO WE POSS COULD JUST DROP THE SCA
AND KEEP JUST BELOW THROUGH FCST PERIOD...WL SEE WHAT ILM AND RDU`S
THINKING IS. WL CONT TO MENTION WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR TSTMS
TONIGHT.

.MHX...NONE.
FREDERICK

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-142100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT NC
1122 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 1997

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SUNSHINE THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

PEOPLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK 8SHELTER INSIDE
A STRONG BUILDING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION INCLUDING SHORT TERM FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.

FREDERICK