Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
144 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 1997

RAH/CAE: CONT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHRA AND TSRA TON. BREEZY WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND... UPPER 60S CST. RAIN TAPERING OFF TWD
DAYBREAK INLAND...BUT WL NEED TO CONT CHC SHRA THRU MIDDAY FOR CSTL
ZNS. HIGH TEMPS MON 70 TO 75 CST WITH NEAR 70 INLAND. BECMG PTLY
CLDY INLAND MON AFTN WITH CLRG CONDS CST MON NIGHT. WNDS WL CONT TO
MIX OUT ATMOS MON NIGHT... SO PREFER WARMER FWC NUMBERS. SUNNY AND
COOL FOR TUE... HIGHS 60 TO 65.

DISC: LLVL WNDS BEGINNING TO INCRS PER LATEST VAD WNDS AND FLOW HAS
FINALLY COME AROUND TO THE SE OFF THE CST. MAIN BAND OF RA WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA WEST OF I95. THE RAIN IS MOVING NNE WITH A SLIGHT
SHFT TO THE EAST NOTED.  STILL EXPECT THAT MAIN TREAT OF TSRA WL
ARRIVE TON AS S/WV SHIFTS NEWD ALNG THE CST. MDLS INDICATE BEST UVM
ARRIVING ARND 00Z AND LASTING THRU EARLY AM HRS. EXPECT A FEW
STRNG/SVR TSTMS... ESP OVR SC AND OFF THE CST. CDFNT WL MOV THRU
THE PEE DEE RGN TWD NOON MON AND OFF THE CST BY LATE AFTN. WNDS WL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE FNT PASSES WITH BEST H8 CAA AND MORE OF A
NW WND ARRIVING MON NIGHT. EXPECT WITH FNT NEARING THE CST DURING
MON AM AND SOME LINGERING DYNAMICS WITH THE 5H TROF... SCT SHRA WL
OCCUR ALNG THE CST AND OFFSHORE. STRNG SUBSIDENCE TO SPREAD ACRS
THE RGN LATE MON... MON NIGHT. SKIES WL CLEAR BUT WNDS WL KEEP
THINGS MIXED. SUNNY AND COOL TUE WITH SUBSIDING WNDS.

CWF: ETA STRONGER THIS RUN WITH DEVELOPING A 50 KT LLVL JET JUST
OFF THE CST OVERNIGHT... AND ONLY FOR A CPL HRS. EXPECT WINDS TO
CONT TO INCREASE AND BECOME SUSTAINED AT 30 KTS TON. WOULDN/T ARGUE
WNDS WL BE NEAR GALE AT TIMES OVR THE SRN NC WATERS... BUT I THINK
MORE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS ESP IN THE TSTMS. FOR NOW THINK NRN SC/SRN
NC WATERS NEED TO CONT STRNG SCA WITH INCRSG S WNDS AND SEAS. WNDS
BECMG WEST LATE MON AND NW MON NIGHT THRU TUE.

ILM CU 068/073 046/064 +40
FLO EU 066/070 044/065 +20
J
SQI