Tornado Warning 26, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
341 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 1997

SHORT TERM:
SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT.

THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS ALL FAIRLY SIMILAR BUT GENERALLY FOLLOWED
ETA SOLUTION THROUGH 24 HOURS.  THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS DEVELOPED ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM REMNANTS OF MCS OVER EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING DUE TO CURRENT TRAINING.

YESTERDAY/S MODEL RUNS FORECAST INGREDIENTS FOR MCS LATER TONIGHT
AND THESE INGREDIENTS ARE STILL IN PLACE IN THIS MORNING/S RUNS.  BY
06Z MONDAY...MODELS FORECAST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...STRONG THETA-E RIDGE OVER KS...RIDGE OF MAXIMUM 850 MB
DPWTS IN ALIGNMENT W/ THE THETA-E RIDGE...STRONG WAA AT 850 MB AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ALL POINT TOWARDS MCS DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA.  PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESS PATTERN AND 10C
ISOTHERM AT 700 MB WOULD POINT TOWARDS A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AGAIN
TONIGHT.  THE ONE INGREDIENT CURRENTLY MISSING IS A FEATURE ALOFT TO
GET MCS STARTED.  IF COMPLEX DEVELOPS...FEEL IT WILL TAKE A TRACK A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS MORNINGS TRACK.  DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO CLOSE TO GOING POPS.  CURRENT SFC DWPTS IN THE
68-75 DEGREE AND BOTH NGM AND AVN MOS MIN TEMPS LINE UP WITH THIS.

MARIEN

LONG TERM:
MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND WHAT
EFFECT THIS WILL HAVE ON TEMPS MON.

THE AVN/ETA/NGM ALL HANDLE THE STRONG MID-UPR LVL TROF INTO THE
N/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN A COMPARABLE MANNER. GOOD WAA BEGINS TO OCCUR
MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGH 12Z TUE AT BOTH 70H AND 85H AS
INDICATED BY THE ETA/NGM...MORE SO WITH THE ETA. GOOD WESTERLY FLOW
OCCURS AT BOTH LEVELS UP TO 50H...SO LOOK FOR STRONG CAP TO DEVELOP
BY 12Z TUE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.

X-SECTIONS INDICATE GOOD UVV ACROSS SE KS THRU THE MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY WHICH WOULD FALL IN LINE WITH MCS MOVG SE ALONG PRESENT
THICKNESS PATTERNS.

AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING PCPN IN SE ZONES...BIG
CONCERN IS HOW WARM TEMPS WILL REACH DUE TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE FROM POTENTIAL MORNING PCPN. ALL MODELS SHIFT THE 85H
THERMAL AXIS EAST WITH 1000-500 THICKNESSES INCREASING...THEREFORE
WILL LEAN TWD WARMER FWC NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

REESE

RSL 069/097 072/099     113-0
SLN 068/097 073/099     115-0
ICT 068/094 073/097 068 h114-0
HUT 071/093 072/096     113-0
CNU 072/090 073/095     11430

KSZ032-033-047>053-O67>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-212230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
503 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 1997

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED ON 146.82 AND 145.13 MHZ.

OGREN

KSZ032-033-047>053-O67>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-212230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
503 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 1997

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE I(N WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED ON 146.82 AND 145.13 MHZ.

OGREN