Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
355 PM CST THU MAR 27 1997

...SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW OVER OK PANHANDLE PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING.  SHOWERS/TSTMS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER NW OK AS COLD POOL
ALOFT HELPS DESTABLIZE ATMOSPHERE.  MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED AT
THE SFC WITH MID TO LOWER 40 DEWPOINTS...AND 50 DEWPOINTS STILL
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...SO EXPECTING MAINLY HIGH BASED PCPN.  A
SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NRN STREAM JUST AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THE OK-SHORTWAVE AND WITH COLD FRONT ALSO DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO
HELP IN THE LIFT...COULD STILL SEE A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KS WHERE RETURN
MOISTURE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE GETTING BACK INTO THE AREA.
1000-850 THICKNESS PATTERN SHOWS FRONTAL PASSAGE JUST BEGINNING IN
NW KS AROUND 06Z AND STILL TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH SE KS BY 12Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE
PRESSURE TROF IN WRN KS...BEFORE EVENTUALLY DECREASING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT BUT REMAINING RATHER WINDY THERE AFTER.  WINDS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE ADVISORY RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED CLOSER TO DAYBREAK WILL LEAVE OUT OF OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ATTM. TEMP-WISE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

...LONG TERM...
MAIN CHALLENGES WITH THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDE WIND AND
CLOUD TRENDS FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER
IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS NE KS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
BEFORE THE RESULTING WAVE PUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST INTO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 18Z. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE...AND DOMINATE THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

SURPRISINGLY...THE ETA AND NGM SEEMS TO HANDLE THESE EVENTS
WELL AND WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER AWIPS RH PROGS
INDICATE BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THE
SHORTWAVE EXITS...NEGATIVE DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE...BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MAY ALLOW SOME CU/SC/AC TO DEVELOP...DELAYING COMPLETE
CLEARING. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE OF THE 993 SFC LOW
IN MN...BUT GRADIENT RELAXES GREATLY AFTER 18Z. LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY IF THIS PATTERN IS REALIZED. FOR
NOW...WILL WORD WINDY IN THE ZONE FCST. PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO KS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING COOL TEMPS AND LIGHT
WINDS...WITH A MILD AND SUNNY START TO THE WEEKEND. IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING PLACE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND MONDAY BEFORE RETURN FLOW BRINGS
GULF MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

RSL  040/061/034/062       022-0
SLN  046/057/034/062       023-0
HUT  044/061/032/064       02310
ICT  047/060/035/064/036   02320
CNU  048/059/033/062       02420