Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 1997

...SHORT TERM...
STILL DEALING WITH SAME LITTLE SPINNER.  MODELS VERY INCONSISTANT IN
THEIR HANDLING OF IT FROM RUN TO RUN...SO FAR PREFER A ETA/AVN BLEND
AS NGM WAS TOO FAR NORTH EVEN AT 18Z TODAY BASED ON SAT PIC.  THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BEHAVE LIKE A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THAT IT
BREATHES OUT DURING THE DAY AND BREATHES IN AT NIGHT AS IT BECOMES
THE RELATIVE WARM SPOT.  EXPECT CENTER OF LOW TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR
GBD/RSL BY MRNG WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN SOUTH OF IT ACROSS SCNTRL KS.
AM TEMPTED TO ISSUE FFA BASED ON LOW FFG FOR COUNTIES NEAR THE OK
BDR.  HOWEVER...WITH HPC AND MDL QPF ALL EITHER DISCOUNTING PCPN OR
KEEPING MAX JUST WEST OF CWA...WILL HOLD OFF AND LET EVENING SHIFT
REEVALUATE.  TREND HAS BEEN FOR LESS PCPN EACH NIGHT WITH THIS
THING.  FOR TEMPS...WILL GO CLOSE TO PERSISTANCE.

MATT

...LONG TERM...

WHERE WILL THE PESKY UPPER LOW MOVE IS THE MAJOR CONCERN IN THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE MODELS IS
LOW...FELT NGM SOLUTION WAS TOO STRONG AND HAD THE SYSTEM TOO FAR
NORTH. AS A RESULT...LEANED TWD ETA/AVN SOLUTION.  HISTORY WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN FOR PCPN TO BREAK OUT AT NIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM AND SOUTH. WITH UPPER LOW TO DRIFT NORTH WILL KEEP
POPS ABV GUIDANCE VALUES IN CTNRL/SC ZONES AND WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE SUNDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL
POPS IN SE ZONES...AS DIFF VORT ADV PUSHES INTO THIS REGION AND
THETA-E RIDGE ALSO FORECAST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
CLOSER TO CENTER OF SYSTEM...IN CENTRAL/SC ZONES. GENERALLY WILL
FOLLOW PERSISTENCE ON LOWS WHICH FALLS CLOSER TO FAN NUMBERS.

ALTHOUGH SYSTEM WEAKENS MONDAY...SHORT WAVE ENGERY STILL REMAINS
ACRS CNTRL/ERN KS AND PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
ALSO...AVN INDICATES A CLDFRNT SLIDING SOUTH INTO NRN KS. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP SCT POPS ACRS REGION BUT WILL PUT HIGHEST VALUES
IN NRN ZONES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO CONVERGENCE ZONE. CLOUDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK AGAIN...BUT ANTICIPATE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AS
SYSTEM WEAKENS...THUS WILL ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO SUNDAY/S
FORECAST HIGHS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.

...THANKS TO DDC/TOP/SGF FOR COORD...

HYSELL

RSL 067/086 067/088     12644
SLN 070/087 069/089     12544
ICT 070/087 070/089 068 12743
HUT 069/087 069/089     12743
CNU 070/089 070/090     12332