Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
228 PM CDT WED JUL 16 1997

...SHORT TERM...
PCPN CHCS AND TEMPS THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR FCST TONIGHT.  LEFTOVER AREAS
OF SH/TSRA CONTINUES VERY SLOW MVMNT WITH DECRSNG TREND SHOWN ON 88D
HWVR SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENT ON BACK SIDE ON LAST FEW SCANS.  IN
ADDITION...LINE OF TCU DEVELOPING TO THE EAST IN AREA OF HIGHER MSTR.
OVERALL PATTERN TO CHANGE LTL OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT.  WL CARRY LINGERING LOW PCPN CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT IN S CNTRL
AND SERN ZNS AS VORT MAX REMAINS IN THE VICINITY.  GUID TEMPS LOOK
PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT AND WL GENERALLY FOLLOW AS EXPECT DWPTS TO RECOVER
SOME.

URBAN

...LONG TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
MORNING AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FOR NOW...I LIKE THE
LOOKS OF PERSISTENCE.  BOTH THE ETA AND NGM MODELS HANDLE THE
PERTINENT FEATURES SIMILARLY.  I WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ETA MODEL PER
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED EACH OF THE PREVIOUS THREE
MORNINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT H5
PROGGED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY 00Z FRIDAY.  I
WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MY CWA SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND ENOUGH PVA
SHOULD BE PRESENT TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION.  THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY LOOK TO BE DRY FOR NOW ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA.  THE SHORTWAVE
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA AND NVA (SUBSIDENCE) BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO
THE CWA.  THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO WHAT YOU SEE IS
PRIMARILY WHAT YOU GET (IE. NO WAA OR CAA).  I WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW
THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER
...I WILL STILL LAG BEHIND GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER.

CHANCE

RSL 071/098 071/097     0110-
SLN 073/099 071/098     0110-
ICT 070/097 073/096 071 01221
HUT 070/0@97 072/096     01221
CNU 072/093 071/093     01221