Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 1997

...SHORT TERM...
PREFRONTAL SFC TROF FROM SW KS TO NCNTRL KS ATTM SET UP ACROSS AREA
OF HIGH INSTABILITY WITH COLD FRONT NOT FAR BEHIND.  ADAP SHOWING
LIS TO MINUS 12 IN SW KS WHICH GOES PRETTY WELL WITH MIXED OUT DDC
SOUNDING.  VERY GOOD MSTR CONVERGENCE ALONG TROF WITH LITTLE CAP
LEFT IN PLACE.  STARTING TO SEE BETTER CU DVLPMT ALONG TROF EXCEPT
IN SW KS WHERE CAP HOLDS WELL.  HAVE TWO MAIN CONCERNS.
ONE...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THIS EVENING ALONG TROF.  XPCT TSRA TO
BREAK OUT ALONG TROF NEAR HYS AND MOVE INTO CNTRL KS THIS EVENING.
IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...THESE SHOULD BE SEVERE.  SECOND CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROF/FRONT MOVES OUT.
APPEARS THAT WINDS SHOULD BE NEARLY PARELLEL TO THE FRONT IN THE MID
LVLS...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOS.  MDLS DIFFER ON
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AND CONSEQUENTLY THE BEST LLJ ACTION OVER
THE FRONT.  BEST GUESS IS SORT OF A COMPROMISE...WITH THE BEST LLJ
CONVERGENCE BEING OVER CNTRL KS.  BASED ON 12Z RAOBS...DEEPEST MSTR
SHOULD ALSO BE OVR CNTRL KS.  WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN CNTRL
KS...BUT HOLD OFF ON FFW DUE TO GENERAL DRYNESS AND UNCERTAINTY IN
FORECASTED POSITION OF PCPN MAX.  EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ONE THOUGH...

MATT

...LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS WE
BEGIN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL NOT PUT ANY MENTION OF TIMING
ON PRECIP WED AS SOME LEFTOVER DEBRIS FROM TONIGHTS EVENT SHOULD
STILL BE LINGERING DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN REDEVEOPMENT
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.  18Z POSITIONING
COULD RANGE FROM ENID TO SGF...TO AS FAR NORTH AS P28 THRU TOP.
WILL TAKE THE MIDDLE GROUND AND HAVE FRONT THROUGH ICT TO EMP AND
MCI...WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE NGM POSITIONING AT THAT TIME...BUT
WITH A FRONTAL POSTION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OK ON THURS SIMILAR TO
ETA.  AS MENTIONED IN SEVERAL DISCNS..ETA TRIES TO OVER DEVELOP A
WEAK VORT MAX OVER NW KS OVERNIGHT AND TRACK IT EAST ACROSS KS ON
WED...HOWEVER WITH A FRONT IN THE VCNTY AND INSTABILITY STILL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHC OF PRECIP THROUGH WED NIGHT.  HIGH
PRESSURE ON THURS APPEARS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FAR ENOUGH THAT WE
SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OFF TO THE WEST.

NOONAN

RSL 063/078 058/082      15732
SLN 066/081 061/083      15732
ICT 068/085 063/085 064  15543
HUT 066/083 061/083      15543
CNU 069/089 064/082      15243