Tornado Warning 43, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
246 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 1997

MDLS INDICATE CHC OF SHWRS & TSTMS ON TAP THRU AT LEAST WED.  RMNTS
OF TX UPR LOW NOW OVR W TX WILL SLWLY KICK OUT TO NE & OVR TX THRU
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING W COAST TROF.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE
MAIN KICKER FOR WIDESPREAD SHWRS & TSTMS ACRS SE TX FOR NXT 36-48
HRS.  LIKE ETA'S SOLUTION BEST SINCE IT DIGS THE APPROACHING W COAST
TROF FURTHEST SOUTH THRU PERIOD.  BELIEVE W COAST SHRT WV CUD DIG
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH BY 48HRS THEN CRNTLY PROGD AND PSBLY TREK ACRS N
CNTRL TX ON THU.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN CHC OF RAIN CONTG INTO AT
LEAST THU OR UNTIL FEATURE KICKS OUT TO NE.  FOR NOW...AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL CONT TO RIDE IN OFF GULF ABOARD A STRENGTHENING LLJ NOTED AT 85H
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND GOOD DIFF NOTED OVRHD.  THIS COUPLED
WITH EXPECTED SERIES OF UPR LVL RIPPLES WILL WARRANT TWEAKING UP OF
POPS EACH PERIOD.  WILL ALSO EXTEND HVY RAIN OUTLOOK THRU WED FOR
ENTIRE FA BUT LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON PSBL FFA SINCE LACK OF SFC
FEATURES MAKES IT HARD TO PIN POINT JUST WHAT AREA CUD GET IT THE
WORST.  39

CLL T/T/T 85/72/85 7574  LCLY HVY +RA PSBL TUE/TUE NGT/WED
IAH T/T/T 85/73/85 8684  LCLY HVY +RA PSBL TUE/TUE NGT/WED
GLS T/T/T 83/78/83 8685  LCLY HVY +RA PSBL TUE/TUE NGT/WED
PSX T/T/T 84/75/84 8685  MATAGORDA/JACKSON/WHARTON/BRAZORIA
                         LCLY HVY +RA PSBL TUE/TUE NGT/WED

TXZ176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-072100-

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 1997

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF A COLLEGE
STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON LINE WHICH INCLUDES THE GREATER
HOUSTON METRO AND GALVESTON AREAS.  THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST COAST DEEPENS.  THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
COMBINE TO SEND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS TEXAS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS LIKELY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO HOUSTON
TO LIBERTY LINE.  ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM INLAND ABOARD STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME...
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER WHICH MAY REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF A WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.  THE NEXT HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING.