Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED 1ST PERIOD POPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
210 PM CST SUN DEC 7 1997

MOSTLY -RA HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON AS PRECIP PATCHES HAVE BEEN MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NE
AROUND 25 KNOTS.  SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY RACING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO TOWARD WEST TEXAS.  AREA SURFACE PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL
RAPIDLY WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN CRP AND MFE.
IN RESPONSE...COASTAL WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS.  LATEST MODEL EXAMINATION STILL POINTS TO A
GOOD CHANCE OF LOCALLY +RA ACROSS THE IAH AND GLS ZONE GROUPS...WITH
A BULLSEYE AT 08/00Z.  STRONG UVM (ASSOCIATED WITH 50 KNOT 850 MB LOW
LEVEL JET AND >130 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET) AND POOLING PW VALUES (1.25
TO 1.50 INCHES) WILL RESULT FROM COMBINATION OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SURFACE LOW DOWN SOUTH AND UPPER LOW OUT WEST.  THESE FEATURES WILL
LEAD TO SHRA/TSRA FORMATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF LOCALLY +RA IN IAH AND GLS ZONES.  PRECIP WILL
COME TO AN END BY 08/06Z AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVE OFF TO
OUR EAST AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.

DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO A BIG WARMUP
(COMPARED TO THE LAST WEEK OR SO) FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  AREA
REMAINS IN A ZONAL FLOW WITH ACTIVE EASTWARD MOVING IMPULSES STAYING
NORTH OF THE AREA.  EXPECT TUESDAY MORNING COLD FROPA TO BE A DRY ONE.

PRELIMS

CLL T/B A/B 049/072 050/072 8000
IAH T/B A/B 052/072 051/072 9000
GLS T/B A/B 061/071 062/071 9000

 - 1ST PD...ALL ZONE EVENING POPS...ENDING BY MIDNIGHT
 - 2ND PD...CLL PARTLY CLOUDY
         ...IAH AND GLS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY

42

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