Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
222 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 1997

INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BNDRYS COUPLED WITH AN UNSTABLE SE TX AIRMASS IS
PRODUCING SCT STRNG TSTMS ACRS MUCH OF FA THIS AFTN...MAINLY OVR ERN
SECTIONS.  ACTIVITY CUD CONT THRU EVNG HRS AS S/W RIDES ACRS MAINLY
NORTH TEXAS & AREA WNDS DECOUPLE...ALLOWING A WARM INVERSION & LLJ TO
FEED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.  BELIEVE MAIN PUNCH OF S/W WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH N & NE TO PULL ITS INFLUENCE OUT OF FA BY ARND MIDNGT TNGT.
HOWEVER...TSTM ACTIVITY HERE WILL BE MAINLY MESO DRIVEN AND WILL
WARRANT KEEPING CHC POPS IN THRU TNGT.  WILL GO WITH PSBL LCLY HVY
RAIN AND SVR FOR THE CNTRL AND NRN ZONES THRU MIDNGT...SO WORD MAINLY
FOR THREAT TO DIMINISH BY ARND MDNGT.  MAINLY OUTFLOW BNDRYS FM TNGTS
TSTMS AND SEA BREEZE WILL BE FOCUS FOR AFTN/EVNG TSTMS ON MON.  WITH
SLGT RIDGING NOTED AT 5H BEHIND DEPARTING S/W...WILL LWR POPS TO SLGT
CHC ON MON.  MDLS SHOW A STRNG POOL OF THTE AND CAPE VALUES OVR CNTRL
TX LATE MON AFTN AND ANY DVLPMNT THERE WILL PUSH OUTFLOWS THIS WAY
INTO MON EVNG.  WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS IN MON EVNG JUST IN CASE.
WEAK UPR SHEER AXIS RMNS PARKED OVR FA ON TUES WITH MDLS SHOWING WEAK
S/WS RIDING ARND UPR RIDGE TO WEST.  HOWEVER...20H CONTS TO SHOW
RIDGING OVRHD WHILE MAIN S/W DIGS ACRS N MEX/W TX.  BELIEVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE SLOW MVG EWD AND...FOR NOW...  WILL ONLY GO SLGT CHC POPS ON
TUES BUT EXPECT INCREASING MID-HIGH CLDS FM WEST.  THIS WILL WARRANT
SLGTLY LWR DAYTIME TMPS ON TUES.

39 PRELIMS...
(PSBLY SVR & LCLY HVY RAIN THRU MIDNGT TNGT NRN-CNTRL ZONES ONLY)

CLL E/B A/B>E   074/094/074/092  4322
IAH E/B A/B>E   074/094/074/092  4322
GLS B/B B/B>E   079/090/080/089  3322

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-070500-

HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
209 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 1997

THERE EXISTS A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AFTERNOON HEATING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH ARE COMING TOGETHER OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF A COLUMBUS TO HOUSTON TO LIBERTY LINE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL COLLIDE.  THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...WEAK WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL PRODUCE SLOW
MOVING STORMS AND COUPLED WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...WILL BRING A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THEIR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR
LOCAL NEWS MEDIAS FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.