Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
750 PM CDT MON JUL 7 1997

STANDARD DIURNAL CHGS TO FCST REQUESTED... DROP POPS FOR INLAND ZONES
AND DO SOME REWORDING FOR COAST...

LATE FORMING SEABREEZE CONVECTION NOW ALONG BRENHAM TO LIBERTY LINE
SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SS.  SAME GOES FOR TSTMS BETWEEN
LIVINGSTON AND CROCKETT WHICH HAVE FIRED ON AN INTERSECTION OF TWO
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN
PRIOR TO SR EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG COAST.  AS FOR THE CASE OF PCPN
ALONG THE COAST...  EXPECT THIS TO BE SPONSORED BY AREA OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM W GULF OF MEXICO.  MODELS HAVE
INTRIGUING MISH-MASH OF PCPN FCST NEXT 24 HRS... AND ALTHOUGH NOT ALL
OF IT ASSOCTD WITH THIS TROPICAL "SYSTEM" (IF SOMETHING THIS
DISORGANIZED CAN BE CALLED THAT)... I DON'T LIKE ANY OF THEM.  I
SUSPECT THAT PCPN WILL ACTUALLY HAVE THE KIND OF LOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
THAT WOULD BE INSINUATED BY JUST EXTRAPOLATING WHAT CAN BE SEEN OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO ON SATELLITE...  SPREADING GRADUALLY NEWD
FROM THE COASTAL BEND AREA DURG THE MORNING HOURS TMRW.  THIS ALSO
AGREES WITH ANTICIPATED FLOW CHANGES AS WK 5H TROF AXIS OVR EXTREME
SE TX PULLS FURTHER EWD AND A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS IN FOR A
WHILE.  FOR TONIGHT... WOULD DROP POPS/HEAVY RAIN FOR INLAND ZONES
AND CHG WORDING TO "EVENING SHOWERS ENDING... BECOMING MOSTLY
FAIR".  FOR COAST...  WOULD KEEP 30 PCT POP BUT REWORD TO "SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTOMRS TOWARDS MORNING", AND ALSO DROP MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.  FOR TUE... CURRENT FCST COVERS ANTICIPATED POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN WITH POPS WELL ABV GUIDANCE.

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SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
315 PM CDT MON JUL 7 1997

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR A LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
FOR TONIGHT HAS DIMINISHED.

A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUSIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

SINCE MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN
TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION TONIGHT...STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THESE STORMS MAY AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.