Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 1997

A LOT OF COVERAGE ON THE RADAR THIS AFTN.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT 2ND S/W - WITH THE AMS OVER SE TX STILL VERY UNSTABLE/MOIST/WARM
(ADAP LIs AOA -8/SFC DWPNTS IN THE LWR 70S).  AFTER THE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTN, THINGS SHOULD CALM DOWN A BIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.  UPPER FLOW GOES ZONAL TONITE AS THE MID-LEVELS BECOME A
BIT MORE SWLY.  WHILE AT THE SFC... MOST OF THE MOISTURE GETS SCOURED
(BY WAY OF THE STORMS TODAY) WITH THE AMS REMAINING VERY UNSTABLE (LI
PROGGED FOR TOMORROW: -6/-10 AND CAPES PROGGED AT 30-50K).  AGAIN, NO
MOISTURE TO WORK ON AND NO FOCI/TRIGGERS INDICATED BY THE MODELS THRU
MONDAY (EXCEPT MAYBE THE SEABREEZE).  SFC WINDS ALSO BECOME MORE SWLY
THRU MON.  SO, THE BOTTOM LINE FCST: DRYING AND WARMING.  WILL TAKE A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS.  41

PRELIMS...
CLL T-E/E-B B/B 67/90 69/93 6222 (+R/SVR WX TONIGHT)
IAH T-E/E-B B/B 70/90 73/92 6222 (+R/SVR WX TONIGHT)
GLS T-E/E-B B/B 74/84 75/86 2222

TXZ199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-242100-

SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
935 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 1997

THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER TODAY.  THE THREAT WILL
BE GREATEST DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BECOME SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

STORMS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH.  HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND
THE SEA BREEZE COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS NEEDED FOR THE TRAINING OF
STRONGER STORMS...PRODUCING ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

WITH MANY AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
PONDING OF WATER ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS.  MOTORIST SHOULD UZSE CAUTION
TODAY AS FLOOD PRONE FRONTAGE ROADS AND UNDERPASSES MAY BECOME
INUNDATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

TXZ199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-242100-

SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
935 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 1997

THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER TODAY.  THE THREAT WILL
BE GREATEST DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BECOME SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

STORMS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH.  HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND
THE SEA BREEZE COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS NEEDED FOR THE TRAINING OF
STRONGER STORMS...PRODUCING ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

WITH MANY AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
PONDING OF WATER ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS.  MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION
TODAY AS FLOOD PRONE FRONTAGE ROADS AND UNDERPASSES MAY BECOME
INUNDATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.