Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 1997

RADAR AND ANALYSIS SHOW CF SOUTH OF A SAT TO IAH LN AND SLWLY PUSHING
SSE.  MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE HVY RAIN OVER JACKSON...WHARTON...
MATAGORDA AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
ARE CONVERGING WITH THE SLOW MVG CF.  NRN ZONES ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR TNGT...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHC POPS IN ACRS CNTRL AND
COAST AS SPD OF FNT IS UNCERTAIN ATTM.

ETA AND AVN ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING CF JUST OFF UPR TX
COAST TNGT.  HOWEVER...SFC RIDGE QUICKLY TREKS EWD...PRODUCING ERLY
WNDS ACRS FA BY SAT AFTN.  THIS WILL NOT ALLOW FNT TO PUSH VERY FAR
OFF SHORE AND WILL KEEP TAIL-END OF FNT BACK ACRS S-SW TX...WHERE
CLDS AND MOISTURE AXIS WILL RMN.  WITH FNT RMNG NEAR COAST TNGT AND
LOW-MID CLDS AND -R SLOW TO END BEHIND FNT...WILL KEEP CLDS IN THRU
AT LEAST 17-18Z SAT...THEN SCT NRN-CNTRL ZONES OUT SAT AFTN.  FAIR
SKIES ON TAP FOR SAT NGT INLAND AREAS...THEN MID-HI CLDS INCREASE FM
WEST AS NXT UPR LVL SYSTEM GETS CUT OFF OVR BAJA...SENDING PAC
MOISTURE & MID-HI CLDS OUR WAY LATE SUN-MON.  MAINLY JUST EXPECTING
CLDS ATTM...AS DONT SEE ENOUGH DEEP RH OR WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING
OVR UPR RIDGE TO WARRANT OVRRNG RAINS ACRS FA THRU THIS FCST PERIOD.
GULF OPENS UP SUN AFTN-MON...PUSHING FNT SLWLY BACK NWRD...ALLOWING
FOR A QUICK WARMUP/MOIST RTRN ON MON AS CUT OFF LOW OVR BAJA GETS
MORE ORGANIZED AND RIDGE OVRHD FLATTENS OUT.  MIX BETWEEN COOLER AVN
AND WARMER NGM #'S.  PRELIMS NXT.  39

CLL  R-C/E-B A/B-E  56/76 55/79  2000  -R ENDG BY MDNGT
IAH  T-R/E-B A/B-E  60/78 55/80  4100  T ENDG EARLY BCMG -R BY MDNGT
GLS  T-R/E   B/B-E  65/75 67/77  6200  T TNGT BCMG -R AFTR MDNGT

TXZ176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-092300-

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1045 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 1997

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE VERY
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.  WITH WEAK WINDS
AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY...THE STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE ALSO BE MOVING SLOWLY WHICH COULD ALLOW THEM TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
AFTRENOON AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ANY REPORTSOF FLOODING SHOULD BE REPORTED TO YOUR LOCAL SHERIFFS OR
POLICE OFFICE FOR IMMEDIATE RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
TELEVISION FOR LATER UPDATES AND STATEMENTS.